Greenbrier betting preview

By Dave Tindall Last updated: 28th July 2010

Matt Kuchar is amongst Dave Tindall's picks for this week's Greenbrier Classic in West Virginia.

'Low scores predicted for Classic' says the headline in the Charlestone Gazette ahead of this week's Greenbrier Classic.

We have to take extra note of clues like that as the Old White course is being used for the first time on the US Tour - always a headache for punters.

So let's get our bearings. This week's event is taking place in West Virginia (get out your US map and head inland off the east coast). To get an idea of which golfers might find it a relatively short hop from their home states, Kentucky is to the southwest, Ohio to the northwest, and Pennsylvania and Maryland to the northeast.

The course is a tree-lined par 70 and, after seeing it for the first time on Monday, some caddies reckoned we could be looking at a score near 20-under - hence the Charlestone Gazette headline.

The newspaper quotes Arnold Palmer's grandson Sam Saunders as saying: "The fairways are not that tight and they are soft. You don't have to hit it right down the middle. Scores will be really low."

So let's start with an in-form player who has excellent scoring stats - Matt Kuchar.

The American is coming off a tied fourth place in last week's Canadian Open where he closed 67-66-67.

As that was a shortish tree-lined par 70 there are obvious similarities to this week and Kuchar racked up 17 birdies at Royal St George's.

He sits 7th in Scoring Average and 18th in Birdie Average and his last three starts on the other side of the Atlantic show an eighth at Memorial, a tied sixth in the US Open and that top four in Canada. He also played well at St Andrews, closing 71-69 to finished tied 27th.

Kuchar showed his ability to go low when shooting 19-under in the Mercedes and 29-under at the Bob Hope earlier in the season, numbers which helped him finish third and second in those West Coast events.

He's banked over $2.5m in 2010 but is still hungry for a first win of the campaign and is also chasing a Ryder Cup spot.

As short as 16/1 in places, the 22/1 is worth taking.

Charley Hoffman was another to crack the top five in Canada last week after scoring bookend 65s and he poured in 13 birdies on the weekend.

He sits 21st in Birdie Average and 16th in Par Breakers (which adds in eagles) and is definitely one of the form players heading to West Virginia.

Before his top four in Canada, 'The Hoff' had finished tied seventh in the John Deere Classic (shot 15-under) where he also started and finished with rounds of 65.

The secret to his improved form? As ever, good health. "I was hurt at the beginning of the year with a wrist injury and everything is getting back in order now, so better late than never," he said last week and the results are now coming.

He's due a win after fluffing his lines in last year's Phoenix Open and this could be the week where he adds to the Bob Hope title (won with 17-under) he captured in 2007.

If you want someone who can shoot the lights out, how about Paul 'Mr 59' Goydos.

Goydos' incredible round came just three weeks ago and helped him card 24-under at the John Deere Classic and finish runner-up to Steve Stricker.

And yet he's drifted back out to 100/1 to win here despite his only 'crime' inbetween being a missed cut at St Andrews where he got unlucky with the draw.

A three-figure price is an insult really. Goydos has already racked up three top fives in 2010 while last year he had a second, a third and a fourth in the space of four starts. In other words he's an each-way punter's pal.

After shooting his 59, Goydos said that if he holes an early 20 footer in a round he typically drains a few so if he gets on another run here the birdies will flow and he should challenge for the title. Snap up that 100/1.

With no course form to go on, let's go with another in-form player for our next pick - Charlie Wi.

The Korean said at the start of July: "I feel like my game is coming around, and I feel good about it."

He backed that up with a fourth at the AT&T, followed it with a top 15 in the John Deere and then added another fourth place in Canada last week.

Wi sits 29th in both the Par 3 and Par 4 Birdie or Better leaders so certainly won't mind there being two less par fives this week (he's 143rd in the Par 5 Birdie or Better stats).

The 38-year-old has posted a runners-up finish on the US Tour in each of the last three seasons and also twice recorded a 61 so he's capable of a low one.

Go in each-way at 40s.

Finally, I'm going to take a punt on Brian Davis at 200/1.

That's a ridiculous price given that he's a two-time runner-up on the US Tour this year.

The basis for it appears to be a little run of poor results followed by last week's withdrawal from the Canadian Open when he shot a first round 78.

The reason Davis gave was 'exhaustion' and I'd rather hear that than, say, a back injury.

Given that he spent Open week waiting and failing to get a late call up and then followed it with some bogeys in Canada maybe he should have cited 'frustration' instead of 'exhaustion'.

But presuming he's had a bit of sleep Davis should be ready to challenge again.

His two second places this year were preceded by form figures of MC-MC-MC and MC-24-46 so we shouldn't be too worried by his last three results - WD-62-MC.

Both his runners-up finishes came on shortish tree-lined non-par 72s (par 71 at Hilton Head and par 70 at Colonial) so he should welcome this week's conditions.

True, he isn't the world's best putter but he shot 13-under and 18-under when second in those two events and he also carded 17-under when solo second at last year's Byron Nelson (yet another short par 70).

In other words, Davis shouldn't be anywhere near 200/1 on this style of course.

Tips:

2pts e.w. Matt Kuchar at 22/1 (Betfred, VC Bet 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Another top four in Canada last week and a win must be around the corner.

1pt e.w. Charley Hoffman at 50/1 (bet365, totesport 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). T7-T4 on last two starts and 21st in Birdie Average bodes well for low scoring week.

1pt e.w. Charlie Wi at 40/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). In great form of late and has the ability to shoot the lights out.

1pt e.w. Paul Goydos at 100/1 (bet365, Betfred, Ladbrokes 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Shot a 59 and 24-under when runner-up on last start in America. Three top 5s in 2010.

1pt e.w. Brian Davis at 200/1 (Ladbrokes 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Crazy price for a player who has twice finished runner-up this year.