Colonial betting preview

By Dave Tindall Last updated: 25th May 2010

Bo Van Pelt is in great form at present and is Dave Tindall's top pick at 66/1 to win the Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial.

Bo Van Pelt is one of the most in form players in golf - and yet he's available at 66/1 to win this week's Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial.

Van Pelt has just produced a run where he finished tied third at Hilton Head, fifth at Quail Hollow and tied fourth at the Players Championship and provided even more evidence of his well-being by cruising through 36-hole qualifying for the Open Championship earlier this week.

Knowing he had that in his diary, Van Pelt decided to pull out of the Byron Nelson although it was a hard decision. As he explained on Twitter: "Hated to miss Byron Nelson. Great man and a great tournament. Big 2 weeks coming up and my body wasn't ready to go."

So, having shot 10-under to finish tied second in Open qualifying, he's now primed for a crack at the Colonial title.

Van Pelt has some solid form in the Texas event. He's made all six cuts, finished tied fifth on debut in 2004, 17th in 2005 and 12th in 2006 and closed with three 69s last year.

And, of course, this year's Bo Van Pelt is a vastly improved version of the one which has teed it up in the past.

Take a look at his stats. The 35-year-old is 3rd in Total Driving, 6th in Greens In regulation, 1st in Ball Striking and 7th in Birdie Average. And his putting is coming round too.

Speaking at Quail Hollow, he said: "You know, my ball-striking has been pretty good all year, I just struggled with the putter early in the year. I said I was temporary insane for about eight weeks. I was changing putters all the time and trying new stuff, and finally went back to an old putter that I had used for about four and a half years that I had won with last year and got it refurbished the week of the Masters and putted a little bit better last week in Harbour Town, finished third."

Van Pelt finished 6th, 13th and 5th on the Putting Average stats during his great run from Hilton Head to Sawgrass while he was 10th in total putts on his last start in the Texas Open.

The win he referred to was his play-off triumph in the US Bank Championship in Milwaukee - an important breakthrough for Van Pelt as he had something of a choking nearly-man reputation before finally crossing the line in front.

"I guess there comes a point when you have to draw a line in the sand and say, 'enough's enough'," an emotional Van Pelt said after his victory. "I've had enough good chances and haven't got it done and now it feels good.

"The way I've played these play-off holes made it worth the wait."

With that win under his belt, his confidence has gone up a mile so that's why we're not just playing for the each-way money by backing him at 66/1.

That victory at Brown Deer Park also came on a par 70 (the same as Colonial) while his two 65s in Open qualifying were also on a par 70 so everything looks in place for Van Pelt to bag win number two.

Kevin Na is already in the Open field so was able to sit out qualifying on Monday.

But, like Van Pelt 12 months ago, he's desperate to post his first US Tour win after so much knocking at the door.

His latest near miss came when he finished tied second at Bay Hill recently and that's one of three top 10s he's posted in 2010.

Speaking in Florida after his runners-up finish, a bullish Na declared: "I'm going to break that door down one of these weeks. I've got metal, going to leave a mark, too."

Colonial is definitely on Na's hit-list as the tournament that might bring him his first win.

He opened with a 65 when finishing tied 17th in 2005, flew out of the blocks with a round one 63 when tied seventh in 2007 and also shot 66 in rounds one and three when tied ninth last year.

Straight off the tee (tied 37th in Driving Accuracy) and strong on the greens (13th in Putts Per Round), Na is a good fit for Colonial and is a very attractive price at 70/1.

Pick number three is Ben Crane - one of the real form horses of 2010.

Crane won at Torrey Pines on just his second start of the season and in his last two starts has finished tied fourth at the Players Championship and tied seventh at last week's Byron Nelson where he was left to rue a Saturday 74 sandwiched between a Friday 66 and a Sunday 66.

The three-time US Tour winner has some fantastic stats this year - 11th in Driving Accuracy, 10th in Greens In Regulation, 24th in Putting, 6th in All-Around Ranking. He's also 2nd in Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders and 5th in Par 4 Performance - ideal stats for shining on a par 70 with two extra par 4s.

As a resident of Texas with figures like those, Colonial should be right up his street and so it's proved. He's finished in the top five in two of his last three appearances - tied 4th in 2006 and 5th in 2008 - and he was also tied 17th in 2005.

Crane was a best 28/1 for the Byron Nelson, where his record wasn't nearly as strong so the 33/1 this week should be snapped up. Yes, it's a stronger field but his performances at Torrey Pines and Sawgrass show that when he's on his game he thrives in elite company.

Next up, I can't resist the 200/1 about Ryan Palmer.

He's already a winner this year on a old-fashioned par 70 - the Sony Open at Waialae - so he has the game.

But the most compelling factor to back this born and bred Texas is that this is very much a home game. And I really do mean home game as Colonial Country club is his home course.

"When I'm home I play it three or four times a week. My caddy, James, is a member here, and quite a few times club champion, so we know every break and bounce on these greens because we play so much."

Last year he started 69-63 (his lowest 18 of the year) to get in the shake-up before a disappointing weekend while he was in the top 15 the year before.

It's been feast or famine for Palmer in 2010. Eight missed cuts out of 14 starts has bugged him but he won in Hawaii and was also tied ninth in the Valero Texas Open two starts ago.

It really could go one of two ways this week. Either he puts too much pressure on himself with all his family and friends watching him and folds or he rides the wave of support and goes on a birdie blitz which are a highlight of his game.

Palmer is ranked 5th in Par 4 Birdie or Better Leaders in 2010 and also 1st in Final Round scoring so if he can get in contention that 200/1 could look a monster bet.

Finally, as I need a win to kick-start the season again, I'm going to back Phil Mickelson at 17/2.

Lefty turned his own season around with a brilliant win at Augusta and followed that up with a second place at Quail Hollow.

He's a two-time winner of this event and actually took victory on the last time he teed it up here in 2008.

Mickelson wasn't able to defend last year as his wife Amy was diagnosed with breast shortly before the tournament.

To honour the missing champion, Colonial officials organised a "Pink Out" initiative during the third round, with players and fans urged to wear pink in support of breast cancer research and the Mickelson family.

Now a "Pink Out II" has been scheduled for Saturday's third round and Mickelson will be desperate to show his appreciation by winning the event.

Talking of the show of support he said it was "the nicest thing that was ever done for Amy and me" and revealed how it had moved them to tears.

There is one other huge incentive for the four-time Major winner this week.

If he wins Mickelson would overtake Tiger Woods at the top of the world rankings.

He has never occupied top spot but it is very much on his wish-list. "It's certainly something that I have been striving for but have not yet achieved. So it would mean a lot to me," he said recently.

Mickelson shot 65-68-65-68 to win here two years ago so forget any ideas that the course doesn't suit him. He can excel anywhere.

Those that nearly made the staking plan included Brian Gay (the early 50s vanished) and Tim Clark while Davis Love could go well at a three-figure price.

But I'm happy with my team of Van Pelt, Na, Crane, Palmer and Mickelson.

Tips:

1pt e.w. Bo Van Pelt at 66/1 (Boylesports, Betfred, VC Bet 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). In great form of late, putter behaving again and good record here.

1pt e.w. Kevin Na at 70/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Continues to knock at the door and this is a likely venue for his first win.

1.5pts e.w. Ben Crane at 33/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Great form, great stats and a fine record on this course.

0.5pts e.w. Ryan Palmer at 200/1 (totesport 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). A winner this year, 9th two starts ago and playing on his home course.

4pts win Phil Mickelson at 17/2 (VC Bet, Blue Square). Masters champ is a two-time winner here and can go to world no.1 with a win.