Texas Open betting preview

By Dave Tindall Last updated: 12th May 2010

J.J. Henry has strong local connections and can win the Valero Texas Open on the new Greg Norman layout, says Dave Tindall.

A new date on the calendar and a brand new course leaves punters somewhat short-sided for this week's Valero Texas Open.

So what do we know about the Greg Norman-designed track - the AT&T Oaks Course - which plays host?

His own website says: "This world class course is a traditional design that balances narrower tree-lined fairways with wider fairways offering multiple routes and strategic options into the greens.

"The Oaks course is an intimate design with narrow corridors carved through oak trees with only 100 feet of fall from the highest point of the course to the lowest making it very walker friendly.

"The bunkers are spectacular and reflect a natural, rugged "minimalist" with edges emulating the canopy of the native oak trees.

"The course measures 7,435 yards and plays to a par of 72. A unique feature of the course is all downhill holes play into the prevailing wind, while the uphill holes play downwind."

Other points to note are that Sergio Garcia (in the field this week) was used as a consulant in the design while the course is also said to bring to mind some of the sandbelt courses in Norman's native Australia.

Adding to that latter point, Tom Lively, director of golf course operations here, said: "I don't think it's your typical American golf course."

But what the do the players think?

News is thin on the ground with no player transcripts on offer but here are a couple of comments and possible clues:

Robert Gamez: "I loved it. It's a little long, but that's OK. It's tight, which means you have to hit some good iron shots to get the ball on these greens."

Zach Johnson: "It's long. It's a totally different course from La Cantera. It's going to be a hard test. Cameron Beckman plays it a lot. And he plays from the tips. And he's broken 70 once.'' (So does that mean we pile on Beckman? Or does the fact that he's shot in the 60s just once mean he's actually rubbish at playing it?)

Johnson's comments hint that not everyone likes it and, indeed, one caddie is reported to have called the greens "stupid", a point shared by Texas resident Omar Uresti who reckons they're severe for some of the approach shots players will have to hit.

Local reporter Kevin Robbins gathered those comments and he also asked Adam Scott for a winning score. "It depends on the wind. Ten to 15 under," said Scott, who Robbins watched for an hour on the greens "fiddling with alternate Camerons".

Okay, so that's the background research but what about some picks.

To be honest, this looks a very tricky week and one where there is a strong argument for holding off bets until after 18 or even 36 holes.

However, trying to solve the puzzle pre-tournament is always a good challenge so let's give it a whirl.

I'll start with a player with strong Texas connections - J.J. Henry.

Henry feels that he starts to play his best golf at this time of year and reiterated at the recent Quail Hollow Championship that ball-striking was his big strength.

Ball-striking is likely to be extremely important this week so to hear that Henry is delighted with the way he's hitting it is good news if you fancy a punt on him.

Henry resides in Fort Worth and also went to Texas Christian University so this is a home game for him.

As for recent form, the former Ryder Cup star has three top 25s in his last five starts including a tied seventh at Quail Hollow two weeks ago.

And it could be worth noting that he has some good form (a fourth and a ninth) on Greg Norman's other US PGA Tour track, TPC Sugarloaf.

Henry really enjoys this event and at its previous host venue, LaCantera, he managed a second, two fifths and a sixth.

If he takes to the new course as well, he could be a big contender and the 50/1 could look a great bet given his various credentials.

Scott McCarron matched Henry's tied seventh place at Quail Hollow so has some nice recent form under his belt.

And he's appeared on my radar this week due to the fact that he's a two-time winner at Norman's TPC Sugarloaf.

He's driven the ball well this year (tied 21st in total driving) and also ranks well in approaches from 200 yards plus.

Last year in Texas he produced his best golf of the year, finishing tied 17th in this event at LaCantera before shooting a stunning final round 62 to end tied fourth at the Byron Nelson.

Although he missed the cut at Sawgrass last week, he did open with a 68 and if his dodgy putter behaves he has each-way possibilities. We'll take the 150/1.

McCarron is a fine player in the wind and that could be a key skill this week.

Another who relishes it when his trouser legs are flapping hard is Charley Hoffman and he looks a worthwhile play at 40/1.

Hoffman's usual strong West Coast didn't happen this year due to a wrist injury and he spent over a month unable to hold a club.

But he's been given a clean bill of health and is dropping hints that there's a big performance in him.

Both at Quail Hollow and Sawgrass he's threatened it but poor finals rounds (78 in Charlotte and 77 in Florida) have sent him spinning down the field.

However, it means that his subsequent finishes of tied 51st and tied 22nd mask a lot of good play and make him bigger odds than he might have been.

Hoffman has teed it up in four previous Texas Opens and can boast an 8th, a 9th and an 11th so he likes this tournament and hopefully the new course too.

Two years ago, the halfway leader of this event was Chris Stroud and his eventual sixth place was his best finish of the year. It wasn't a surprise though as he'd also finished sixth the year before.

Speaking in 2008, he revealed: "I love San Antonio. I used to play a lot of Junior Golf over here. I have a very, very great calming feeling when I come here. I feel like I'm at home even though I'm really not (he lives in Houston). Have a lot of family that lives here."

Interestingly, some of his fellow pros regard him as the most positive player on tour and that excellent attitude helped him make the top 10 at Sawgrass last week.

It could have been even better but for a final round 74 but Stroud will surely only take the positives out of that week and view it as great progress.

Before that top 10 he was tied 29th at Quail Hollow and tied 21st at the Zurich Classic so it was no surprise that he said at Sawgrass: "The last two weeks really I just have played some great golf. I'm hitting the ball in the fairway, keeping it in play, giving myself a lot of chances."

At his best in hot conditions, Stroud is a fair each-way punt at 66/1.

Finally, given the mention of the course being reminiscent of something you'd find Down Under, it makes sense to have an in-form Aussie in the staking plan.

The man who fits the bill nicely is Matt Jones.

The 30-year-old from Sydney, who now lives in Arizona, has quietly racked up four top 10s this season, the latest two on his last two starts.

First, Jones shot 69-73-67-70 to finish tied 10th in New Orleans and then he improved to tied seventh at Quail Hollow, carding 74-71-69-68.

Golf365.com spoke to his college coach Randy Lein earlier this year and he said of the former Sun Devil: "No-one has a better swing then Matt. He loves the game of golf and being able to play professionally makes it that much better. He will win a Tour event this year."

That last line obviously stands out and Jones is certainly in some of the best form of his career.

He shot 69-64 in his first two rounds at LaCantera having never played there before so hopefully he'll enjoy the same sort of instant success at the AT&T Oaks Course.

Jones rounds off our staking plan at 55/1.

Tips:

1pt e.w. J.J. Henry at 50/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Texas resident has fine record in this event and new Norman course should suit too.

1pt e.w. Scott McCarron at 150/1 (Coral 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). A two-time winner on Norman's other PGA Tour course and T7 at Quail Hollow two starts ago.

1pt e.w. Charley Hoffman at 40/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Has recovered from wrist injury and hinting at a big performance soon.

1pt e.w. Chris Stroud at 66/1 (Ladbrokes, Stan James 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Loves this area, T6 in 07 and 08 Texas Opens and top 10 at Sawgrass last week.

1pt e.w. Matt Jones at 55/1 (Victor Chandler 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Four top 10s this year, including two on his last two starts. Course has Aussie feel.