Bay Hill betting preview

Last updated: 29th March 2010

Retief Goosen is Dave Tindall's headline pick for this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill in Florida.

We've seen 13 different winners in the 13 US Tour events played so far in 2010 and that list doesn't include the likes of Phil Mickelson, Retief Goosen and Robert Allenby

That trio have another chance to put a win on the board in this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill and despite Mickelson, a former winner, being the obvious pick, my money is on Goosen.

The Goose has been bubbling under in the first few months of the campaign. He finished sixth and fourth in the two season-starting Hawaii events, took ninth in Qatar when switching back to the European Tour and then made it to the last eight of the WGC Accenture Match Play.

More recently he finished fifth at the Transitions Championship last Sunday and even more recent than that shot a best of the day eight under alongside Henrik Stenson on day one of the Tavistock Cup before carding a 69 on day two (which included a double bogey at the last) to help Lake Nona to victory.

Goosen looks like a winner waiting to happen and Bay Hill seems a good fit.

The South African generally plays well at Arnie's event but what could prove significant is the fact that his best performance came in 2005 when Bay Hill played as a par 72.

For the last three years it's been a par 70 and Tiger has won all three.

With no Woods in the field and two more par fives to go at, the door is open for Goosen and his fifth place in the Par 5 Birdie or Better Leaders suggests he can take advantage on the longer holes.

A winner in Florida last year, Goosen is also ranked 1st in putting from 5 to 10 feet in 2010 which shows he can cash in when hitting it close or, just as importantly, save par when he has to scramble.

The two-time US Open champ is 30/1 and that's well worth a play.

In his fledgling career on the US Tour, wunderkind Rickie Fowler has already finished runner-up twice.

The latest came just three starts ago in Phoenix while he was also fifth at Torrey Pines three tournaments before that.

Given all the (justified) hype surrounding him, it's a welcome surprise to see him quoted at 70/1 this week and it's a price we shouldn't let go.

The big question mark about him here would appear to be course form. But, wait, he has some. And it's impressive too.

Speaking in Tuesday's press conference, the 21-year-old revealed: "I've had a lot of good experiences here. I've played two times in the HP Boys, which is an AJGA event, and the last time I was here, I won. I think I shot 67-68 on the weekend."

Last week in the Transitions (tied 46th), Fowler frittered away shots at the end when a good finish had eluded him but it's worth remembering that he started Sunday in tied 14th place and level with Nick Watney, who went on to finish fourth.

It could well be that in the not too distant future, we'll be amazed that Fowler used to go off at 70/1 in US Tour events. In which case let's snap up the price now while we have the chance.

Something else Fowler said in his press conference is worth noting. Speaking after a practice round he revealed: "I like all of the run-offs that were added instead of just greens with rough around them."

That comment suggests a sharp short game and good scrambling skills are required and one outsider who definitely fits the bill is Japan's Ryuji Imada.

It's his younger, hipper compatriot, Ryo Ishikawa, who has had all the Japanese photographers swarming around him but, away from the glare, somewhat serenely Imada has been putting together a string of impressive results.

In his last four US Tour starts he can boast a ninth at Torrey Pines (where he led going into the final round), a 15th at Riviera and a tied 14th in Phoenix last time out.

A winner at the AT&T Classic two years ago, Imada has already made the big breakthrough but will want to validate that with another win.

As well as winning two years ago, he also posted two runners-up finishes and a third and that helped him put $3m in the bank in 2008.

Imada, therefore, is a more than useful player and he also seems to play well in Florida - perhaps not a surprise given that he moved from Japan to Tampa at age 14 (hence his excellent English when interviewed).

Last year in this event he shot a second round 66 and was third going into the final round before slipping to tied 17th so he's proven himself at the course.

If Ishikawa had these form figures he'd be around 40/1. But the less glamourous Imada can be backed at a three-figure price.

Next, I'll have a play on the first round leader market.Graeme McDowell has twice ended day one at the top of the leaderboard in Open Championships while on the US Tour he's been round one leader at the Zurich Classic and the Heritage at Hilton Head.

Trawl through his regular European Tour starts and you'll also find McDowell taking day one honours at the Volvo Masters, the Dubai Desert Classic, the BMW Championship and the Dunhill Links in recent years.

He's played at Bay Hill just twice but in the first of those in 2005 (back in the par 72 days) he shot an opening 69 to lie second after Thursday's play.

Two weeks ago he was ninth after day one at the Honda while he shot the second best score on both days of the Tavistock Cup.

He's got a nice morning tee-time in round one so everything is set up for the Northern Irishman to make an early impact again.

Finally, Stan James offer an 'enhanced win only' market and they're dangling a top price 17/1 about Steve Stricker.

Course form is the issue but let's not forget that the book, "Steve Stricker: The Wilderness years" is a pretty long read and it's fairly easy to disregard the string of missed cuts he suffered here when in the doldrums.

He does actually have a bit of Bay Hill form - a sixth in 1998 and that was the year he finished runner-up in the PGA Championship.

So on the theory that he plays Bay Hill well when he's on top of his game he must have a chance this year.

Stricker has already posted a victory in 2010 (at Riviera) while he can boast three wins in his last 16 strokeplay events which strengthens the case for going win only.

Third in Scrambling, fourth in Birdie Average and 14th in the Par Five stats, Stricker has the ideal game to flourish at the new-look Bay Hill and if we are finally set to see a two-time winner in 2010, he looks the most likely candidate.

Tips:

1.5pts e.w. Retief Goosen at 30/1 (VC Bet, Sky Bet, Stan James 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Looks close to another win and this year's Bay Hill layout looks a good fit.

1pt e.w. Rickie Fowler at 70/1 (Sky Bet 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Won on last start at Bay Hill in a junior event. Continues to justify the hype.

1pt e.w. Ryuji Imada at 100/1 (Boylesports 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). In fine form in 2010 and third after 54 holes here last year. Lives in Florida.

1pt e.w. Graeme McDowell to be first round leader at 50/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Has history of making fast starts including here on debut. Shone at Tavistock and out early in R1.

2pt Steve Stricker 'enhanced win only' at 17/1 (Stan James). Three wins in last 16 strokeplay starts. Has the stats to add another here.

RESULT:

Goosen T4th 30/1

PROFIT+1.75pts