Puerto Rico betting preview

By Matt Cooper Last updated: 10th March 2010

Matt Cooper is making a Calc-ulated gamble in the Caribbean - backing a third veteran to grab the title.

There are two ways of looking at this week's Puerto Rico Open presented by Banco Popular.

On the one hand you could argue that the first two runnings of the event have proved to be a punter's nightmare.

Most would have classed first winner Greg Kraft's success as a surprise (his victory in 2008 was his first top five finish on the PGA Tour since 2001) but compared to Michael Bradley's triumph in 2009 it was practically an obvious pick (Bradley hadn't made the top ten since 2000).

On the other hand you could look at the odds and conclude that any PGA Tour event boasting Bryce Molder as a favourite HAS to hold value elsewhere in the field.

Which is not to say that Molder doesn't have a chance this week - he does.

In fact before the prices came out he was on my shortlist. He has course form (3rd here after three rounds last year), is in great nick currently (10th and 8th in his last two outings) and is excellent in the windy conditions he'll face in Puerto Rico.

But 16/1 favourite?! Yikes.

Okay, if not Bryce, then who?

The first thing to note about the Trump International course is that it has Sea Dwarf Paspalum grass, a relatively rare breed that can be fed with salt water and acts a little like Bermuda grass.

Designed by Tom Kite the course is buffeted by strong Caribbean winds and, if we can glean anything from those first two runs, it might be that form in Florida is quite handy.

In fact, just about the only thing Greg Kraft and Michael Bradley have in common (apart from winning here apparently from nowhere) is that they have both played the Blue Monster at Doral rather well (Bradley won there in 1998, Kraft was the runner-up 12 months later).

Unfortunately, given that this event now takes place when the elite WGC field plays at Doral, there aren't too many players in the lower reaches of the PGA ranks with much experience of that course.

But the Florida angle makes sense to me - blowy conditions, near the sea, grainy greens - and one name that leaps from the field given his pedigree in those conditions and ability to win when granted an opportunity (all the more important given that so many with shorter odds than him have never won on tour) is the veteran Mark Calcavecchia.

His Florida record is unquestionable - two Honda Classic wins plus victory in the PODS Championship in 2007 (he has also finished second and third at Doral).

Blustery conditions near the wind have also suited him when winning in Canada, California and the UK.

An obvious concern would be his apparent lack of good results - you have to go back to the Canadian Open last summer for his last top ten. But compared to Kraft and Bradley that's practically hot form.

Jokes aside, I'm less concerned in these lower-tier PGA events by form - the conditions are unusual and the pressure different; form is less a factor than the ability to adapt to the situation.

An added bonus is that, although his results have not been great recently, the Calc actually putted very well on the Paspalum grass at El Camaleon last month and ranked fourth for Greens in Regulation last week at PGA National.

Throw his record in with that of those rated better by the bookies and I have to take the 80/1.

If Florida form (Doral especially) and the ability to roll the ball on Paspalum grass means anything, Joe Durant has to enter the equation.

Born and resident in Florida, he has always played well there - winning at Doral in 2001 and at Disney's resort courses in 2006.

He's a man who "owns" his swing as his relentless long game stats prove: for the last ten years he has been a more or less constant presence in the top 10 of the Driving Accuracy rankings and the top 20 for Greens in Regulation.

The key for him is to find a good rhythm on the greens.

Paradoxically for a dodgy putter he tends to find it on grainy greens - and when he does find it, he often goes on little runs of form.

Which makes his second place finish last month at El Camaleon interesting - especially when added to a top ten here last year.

There is just about enough in his favour to warrant a punt at 33/1.

Finally take a player with no win on the PGA Tour but some interesting early season form.

Unlike Molder, Kevin Stadler and Alex Prugh, however, there might be a touch of value about his price.

Chad Collins finished second on last year's Nationwide Tour rankings thanks to an excellent run that saw him end the season with six top ten finishes in nine starts.

That series of results included victory in the Miccosukee Championship in southern Florida - a blustery venue not unlike Trump International.

He has started his 2010 season well - 16th at Waialae, 10th at the Bob Hope Classic and 4th on those Paspalum greens at El Camaleon.

His last two results have been less impressive but his sure touch on the greens remains - he had a Putting Average of than 1.7 at both Scottsdale and PGA National.

With 40/1 available he completes the staking plan for the week.

Tips:

1pt e.w. Mark Calcavecchia at 80/1 (Stan James 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Veteran with good Florida form fits the winning profile.

1pt e.w. Joe Durant at 33/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Second in Mexico last month and can go one better this week.

1pt e.w. Chad Collins at 40/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). In-form and like Durant played well

Matt Cooper