Mayakoba betting preview

By Matt Cooper Last updated: 8th March 2010

The PGA Tour heads to Mexico this week and Matt Cooper is predicting a strong show from the International players.

In just four years the Mayakoba Classic has become a popular event for the players who love the resort, the golf course and the generous welcome.

And there is no reason why it shouldn't be popular for punters either because the roll-call of past champions, although short, does give us a few hints about the next name on the list.

Previous winners Fred Funk, Brian Gay and Mark Wilson have always thrived on short, windy courses with Bermuda grass greens that call for excellent control from the tee - no surprises because if a player misses the fairways on the El Camaleon course he won't find rough. Instead he'll be stuck in jungle, mangroves or limestone channels and not even a Ping Eye2 wedge could rescue that situation.

Sweden's Carl Pettersson is first pick because his best results indicate that he'll like the challenge in Cancun.

He has won at Sedgefield, a course that tests from the tee, and also won at Innisbrook, a short, blustery venue with Bermuda greens.

Add in two top ten finishes at Annandale, Harbour Town and Waialae and you're looking at a player with the right profile.

In fact, on his most recent visit to Waialae last month he finished a fine fifth, starting and ending the week with rounds of 66.

Towards the end of last year he revealed that after a spell of poor form he was feeling good again.

"I was disappointed Viking got cancelled because I was swinging so well," he said. "I really want to build on that next year."

He has also ditched a diet that didn't suit him: "I tried to get fitter, but I actually got worse, so I'm back to my fighting weight now of 215lbs, I seem to play well at that weight."

I give the Swedish heavyweight a good chance at 40/1.

New Zealander Tim Wilkinson lost much of the 2009 season to injury and whilst his return has not yet reaped any reward there are signs that he isn't too far away and this course is right up his street.

His best finish on the PGA was second place at LaCantera in the Texas Open, he's also been in contention at Waialae and Harbour Town - each and every one is a tight, windy track.

He's also performed well in Puerto Rico and Louisiana - more blowy courses with Bermuda greens.

He may not have finished in the top 20 here in his two visits but he has gone low in four of his eight rounds.

Last seen at Riviera, he was fourth at the halfway stage before slipping into a tie for 20th. That has kept him under the radar and worth backing at 55/1.

I've always been an admirer of Frenchman Thomas Levet and although his attempt to crack the PGA Tour failed, I can't help noticing that his only top ten finishes came at Harbour Town and Innisbrook - and I've already marked them down as asking similar questions to El Camaleon.

With the event being south of the border I'm also inclined to think Levet will see the event as more like one of the European Tour's worldwide jaunts rather than a return to the PGA.

And one thing that has never been in question with Levet is that he hits the ball straight - his fairways and greens stats are magnificent. He also likes playing amongst the trees and can cope with wind.

His form might not look great but he is the sort of player who clicks in certain places and I think he has the potential to do that at El Camaleon. Take the 80/1.

Finally I've got to add KJ Choi. I was tempted by Heath Slocum who obviously has the form here and, as a winner of a Fedex Cup play-off event last year, has no need to be here (so one suspects he really does love the venue) but 22/1 is a bit tight - especially having been on him at 125/1 twelve months ago.

Choi is a shorter price than Slocum but has more winning pedigree and there is plenty to like about his chances.

He's a winner at Waialae and Innisbrook so the short, windy courses on Bermuda greens gets a tick.

In recent weeks his long game has come good too - he ranked first for ball-striking at Torrey Pines, first for Greens in Regulation at Riviera and sixth for All-round game at Pebble Beach.

And at the end of last season he travelled to Malaysia and won the Johor Open on the tight Royal Johor course that is fringed with jungle trees that gobble up stray tee shots.

The last two years have been a struggle for the Korean who has tried to change his swing and also suffered back pain, but he said last week at Pebble Beach, "During the off-season I managed my body better. My back is improved. Because of that my swing speed has increased, distance increased, I think that's really helping my second shot."

Add KJ as the safe option at 14/1.

Tips:

1pt e.w. Carl Pettersson at 40/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). His record on similar courses is excellent and a good fifth in Waialae.

1pt e.w. Tim Wilkinson at 55/1 (bet365 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). His best efforts on the PGA have come on tight tracks with Bermuda greens.

1pt e.w. Thomas Levet at 80/1 (Skybet 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). His straight game is a perfect fit for the course and he knows how to win.

2pt e.w. KJ Choi at 14/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Fitness restored he is ready to win on the PGA and course should suit.

RESULT:

LOSS -10pts

Matt Cooper