Sony Open betting preview

By Dave Tindall Last updated: 18th January 2010

Improved putting could be the key to Retief Goosen scoring a 25/1 success at this week's Sony Open in Hawaii, says Dave Tindall.

In the decade just gone, every victor at the Sony Open was an experienced player who knew how to win. Indeed six of the trophies handed out went to major champions.

Six of the last seven winners had also played in the first leg of the two-week Hawaii Swing so those who teed it up at The Plantation Course would appear to have felt the benefit of a run-out.

The last two winners of this event - Zach Johnson and KJ Choi - had also never seriously contended the week before despite strong finishes.

Choi shot a pair of 69s on the weekend at The Plantation and carried that momentum over, as did Johnson, who shot a sparkling 15-under in the final 36 holes to race through the field despite never troubling the leaders.

So is there anyone in this week's field who fits the identikit i.e. an experienced major winner who played last week but flew under the radar a little?

Step forward Retief Goosen.

The two-time US Open winner shot 67-69 (10-under) on the weekend at the SBS and, encouragingly given that it's held him back in recent years, was second in Putting Average.

The Goose should have won December's Nedbank Challenge by a mile but putted woefully on the weekend and finished two behind winner Robert Allenby. However, he appears to have found a cure.

The South African switched to a belly putter last week and it appeared to pay immediate dividends. "If I do well with it, who knows? Maybe I'll keep it in there longer," he said pre-tournament so it seems pretty certain that the longer stick will get the nod again.

Goosen hasn't actually started at Waialae since playing it three years in a row between 2003 and 2005 but he posted a 10th in the middle of that run and was also top 20 on his first visit.

Although he's generally regarded as not the player he was, don't forget that he won on the US Tour last year and also lost a play-off while he also racked up a 14th European Tour success at the start of 2009.

If his putting continues to thrive - and he has a great record on Bermuda greens - Goosen can score his eighth US Tour victory at decent odds of 25/1.

Although not major winners, several others fit the category of experienced winners who didn't set the world alight at The Plantation Course.

Like Johnson and Choi before him, Brian Gay will be much more suited to the flatter, tighter, shorter layout and smaller greens of Waialae.

And he proved the point last year when 18th in the limited 30-man field at the Plantation but tied fifth here. Gay was 21st last week (a respectable six-under on the weekend) so his warm-up has been almost identical.

On shortish tracks with Bermuda greens Gay has to be feared as it was in those conditions last year that he scored two wins by the combined total of 15 shots.

What's so impressive is that his remarkable 10-shot win at Hilton Head was so quickly franked by a five-shot success at TPC Southwind to prove that the first was no one-off fluke.

Gay is a regular visitor to this event and has posted 10 rounds of 67 or less so, as he's playing the best golf of his career, it's another obvious venue where he can shine again.

Quite simply he shouldn't be 45/1 so get stuck in.

Aside from not being a major winner, bookies' favourite Steve Stricker also ticks all the boxes here.

The world number three got better each day last week, shooting 73-70-68-66 to climb into the top10.

The man from Wisconsin has scored two wins in his last nine US Tour starts so his odds of 14/1 here are more than respectable - especially when you take into account his course form.

Stricker was fourth in both 2007 and 2008 while further down his record you'll spot a third and a seventh.

Not much more needs to be said really. He's the top ranked golfer in the field, playing a course he likes and, more so than at any other time in his career, he's starting to turn near misses into wins.

In which case we'll not mess about and go win only at 14s.

Finally, if Geoff Ogilvy proved the benefit of keeping the wheels oiled by playing Down Under in December, it may be worth looking for another Aussie who is match fit.

And how about Nick O'Hern, who finished third in the Australian Open, fifth in the Australian PGA and whose last start on the US Tour produced a fourth place at Disney.

However, I'm only going to play O'Hern in the place market where he's 16/1.

There are two reasons for this: first, he's notoriously difficult to win with; second, this is his first appearance in this event.

But finishing top five is well within his his capabilities and this should be an ideal course for him.

Tips:

2pts e.w. Retief Goosen at 25/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Sixth last week, perfect profile for this event and finally putting well again.

1pt e.w. Brian Gay at 45/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Fifth 12 months ago and posted two huge wins in similar conditions last year.

3pts win Steve Stricker at 14/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Likes course, finished fast last week and 2 wins in last 9 PGA Tour starts.

2pts Nick O'Hern to finish in the top five at 16/1 (Boylesports, Sky Bet). Hard to win with but has made top five in last three starts and course should suit.

RESULT:

Stricker 3rd 14/1, Goosen 4th 25/1

PROFIT+3.5pts

Dave Tindall