SBS betting preview

By Dave Tindall Last updated: 8th February 2010

Stephen Ames can give US Tour punters a winning start to 2010 by landing the SBS Championship in Hawaii, says Dave Tindall.

With snow sweeping across mainland USA, the plan to start the US Tour on sunny Hawaii seems better than ever this year.

It may not be the strongest field we've ever seen in this event but let's remember that all 28 who tee it up at the Plantation Course in Maui won on the US Tour last year, thereby gaining entry, and Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson always leave it off their schedules anyway.

It means world number three Steve Stricker is the favourite to take victory on the rolling 7,411-yard par 73 and he looks a good one at that.

Stricker closed his 2009 season with two victories in his last eight starts and you could even make that three in nine if including his Shark Shootout victory alongside Jerry Kelly last month (thus giving him the benefit of a recent outing).

The man from Wisconsin was also a play-off loser in this event in 2008 and either side of that he posted top fours in the other early-season Hawaii event - the Sony Open.

I'm almost certain that Stricker's name will feature high on the leaderboard and the 8/1 might even look a very decent price.

However, brave is the man who wants to base his betting career on backing Stricker at single figure prices so let's pass.

Geoff Ogilvy scored a pillar-to-post victory last year but his Aussie form, which is supposed to be a help as it means he's stayed busy, actually appears more of a hindrance.

He arrived in Hawaii last year with Aussie form figures of 1-6 but this year it reads 32-31-7 and that's pretty shoddy given the opposition he was up against.

Before he won here last year, Ogivly had finished 13th and 19th at The Plantation Course so maybe his victory 12 months ago was based very much on current form rather than a liking for the track.

Many of the past winners here had previously won in Florida - the bermuda grass greens being the obvious connection - so Ogilvy has that in his favour but all in all he doesn't look a great bet at 9s even if fellow Aussie Stuart Appleby won this three times on the trot.

However, we can follow the bermuda grass train of thought with a good each-way bet on Stephen Ames.

The adopted Canadian ticks an awful lot of boxes this week.

Not only is he a winner in Florida, he's a very recent winner in Florida. His victory, his third in the Sunshine State, came at the Children's Miracle Network Classic in mid-November and there was an added bonus.

Ames achieved victory after putting new conforming grooves in his bag as he looked to give them an early try before they became compulsory in 2010.

And, as he explained: "This is a great plus, especially coming out of this bermuda rough here, where it really flies out of. The way the ball was reacting on the greens and everything, it was perfect."

It remains to be seen how much of an effect the grooves ruling will have but Ames must have a head start on most of the field in terms of confidence at least having already won with them.

Ames spends every Christmas in Hawaii with his family (as do plenty of other Canadians which means he'll get plenty of support) and being acclimatised (he's actually been there since December 18th) is obviously a plus.

It certainly helped him when he finished third - just one shot out of the play-off - on his last start here two years ago.

When asked about this week after his win in Florida, Ames said: "Golf gets in the way. I don't want to play golf. I want to sit on the beach and relax."

But take those words with a pinch of salt. Ames is a strange old fish and, of course, you can read into those words that he'll have no expactations and they're just the sort of lines that could get quoted back to him after he's won.

Let's hope so. Take the 20/1.

At the same price I'm a big fan of Nick Watney.

The big-hitting American is always one to watch on long courses with four par fives - his two wins have come at Avondale and Torrey Pines - so The Plantation is an ideal fit.

He put the theory into practice in his only start here in 2008 when finishing tied fifth overall and tied fourth in par 5 performance (he played the long holes in nine-under and was also ranked first in greens in regulation).

Watney has also been very active in the last couple of months.

He took the first round lead in the HSBC in Shanghai and, with Tiger and Phil for company, played some impressive golf to finish fifth.

Watney then played in the World Cup at Mission Hills in China, shooting a stunning final round with John Merrick to finish seventh and he threw in a 63 when also taking seventh in the Nedbank Challenge in South Africa.

Having shot a five-under and a six-under in two of his four rounds at The Plantation this course really does look up his street and the tall, elegant Watney has the class and the confidence to get his season off to a winning start.

Watney putts well on bermuda - he boasted a second and a fourth in his four Florida starts in 2009 - and he's definitely worth a bet at 20/1.

I was toying with Pat Perez as a final pick but the dangling 50/1 at Ladbrokes was grabbed by other hungry hands before I could get to it.

To be honest, it might be a blessing in disguise because it allows me to restore Sean O'Hair to the staking plan.

I was very, very reluctant to leave him out as I honestly think this could be a huge year for the American.

As stated, winning form in Florida has been a common thread among past winners here and O'Hair has that thanks to his 2008 win at the PODS Championship.

That victory got him into this event last year and an eight-under 65 on Sunday helped him finish fourth.

O'Hair played the par fives in 11-under (only winner Ogilvy and Anthony Kim did better) and only an "average putter" stopped him putting in a bigger challenge.

Average putting is always a concern with O'Hair but if he gets it right he'll become a prolific winner as his tee-to-green game can be phenomenal.

After a superb start to 2009, which included a third US Tour win, O'Hair went cold over the summer but really came on strong during the play-offs, finishing 8-4-3 in the final three.

And he's kept his game ticking over during the last couple of months.

In November he travelled to New Zealand to play in the Kiwi Challenge and, with the wind blowing, had to pull some crazy clubs - good practice for this week perhaps.

O'Hair lost in a play-off to Anthony Kim but said he "played fantastic" so it was a worthwhile trip.

December saw him tee it up in Tiger's event and a fifth in the Chevron World Challenge - just four shots off the winner - was another good showing. O'Hair's verdict: "I'm hitting the ball well, and I'm putting it nicely."

The layers aren't messing about with his price and with each-way punts on a pair of 20/1 shots already it means we'll have to go 'win only'.

However, O'Hair knows how to get the job done and and if the flatstick is working he can land us a nice season-opening win at 14/1.

Tips:

2pts e.w. Stephen Ames at 20/1 (Paddy Power, Ladbrokes 1/4 1,2,3,4). Just one shot out of a play-off here in 2008 and has already won with the new grooves.

2pts e.w. Nick Watney at 20/1 (general 1/4 1,2,3,4). This course is right up his street and has played some great golf in the last few months.

3pts win Sean O'Hair at 14/1 (bet365, Betfred, Stan James). Fourth here last year and if he putts well he must go close.

RESULT:

LOSS -11pts

Dave Tindall