Dubai Betting Preview

By Dave Tindall Last updated: 8th February 2012

Rory McIlroy will probably finish in the top five in this week's Dubai Desert Classic but, by offering blanket quotes of 4/1, the bookies are trying to force punters to bet win only.

And although no-one doubts his amazing ability, the bottom line is that Rory still doesn't win anywhere near often enough to justify backing him at those odds in a field of this quality.

Martin Kaymer's win percentage is far superior but even at 10s he doesn't really appeal either given his unconvincing start to the season - a hard-to-believe missed cut in Abu Dhabi where his form figures were 1-1-2-1 and a never-threatening-to-win ninth in Qatar.

Lee Westwood? Well, he's been coming here since Matteo Manassero was in nappies and still hasn't won so I'll pass him over too.

Instead, I'll start with a former champion in Thomas Bjorn.

If you stopped watching the Qatar Masters after round one last week you'd have presumed that defending champ Bjorn missed the cut after his miserable seven-over 79.

Wrong. Bjorn improved by 14 shots in round two and followed that 65 with a 68 to finish tied 25th. Had the tournament not been cut to 54 holes you would have backed him to climb higher still.

Nevertheless, those final two rounds plus his third place in Abu Dhabi suggest that Bjorn isn't resting on his laurels after his splendid three-win season in 2011.

Dubai seems a good place for him to challenge again as, along with his win in 2001 when he famously played all four days with Tiger Woods and gunned down the then world number one, Bjorn has also racked up a further six top 25s at the Emirates Course.

Bjorn said it was no surprise that he was able to turn things around in Qatar as he's playing well and his 79 was an anomaly - the result of just a few bad shots.

So give him another chance here at decent odds 20/1 (six places at Bodog).

It's often the case that a player you highlight for a certain tournament who lets you down will then go on to do something special a week or so later.

So having backed Thorbjorn Olesen at three-figure odds in Qatar, I'll give the young Dane another chance here.

And it may be handy to turn back to Thomas Bjorn again for a quote.

Speaking of his young compatriot recently, Bjorn said: "The kid is a wonderful player, very, very big talent.

"He's got everything in the book to become a great player, and he just needs to enjoy these moments when he's up there and take all of the confidence from it.

"He's got everything to become one of the best players in the world."

Bjorn doesn't throw around such accolades lightly and the words carry some clout.

Certainly Olesen did plenty to mark our cards last season when he finished runner-up three times and he's already banked a good cheque in 2012 after a tied eighth in Abu Dhabi.

He probably got the rough end of the draw in windy Qatar last week but he dug deep, made the cut and didn't shoot over par in any of his three rounds.

As he pointed out in Abu Dhabi, Olesen spent some time in the New Year practising in Dubai so hopefully that will stand him in good stead for this week.

With finishes of 19th and 8th in his last two starts in the UAE, Olesen likes the region and let's play him at 80/1.

At the start of the season Simon Dyson set himself the twin targets of breaking into the world's top 15 and also earning a place in Europe's Ryder Cup team.

So, on first glance, it seems odd that after his decent 17th place in Abu Dhabi he didn't keep the irons hot by contesting last week's Qatar Masters in Doha.

However, not so strange when you look back at past results. Whereas here in Dubai he's made his last eight cuts and reeled off five top 25s, in Qatar Dyson has finished better than 28th just once in nine starts.

Back in 2007, Dyson revealed why his record in these two Desert Swing events contrasted to much.

"Doha just does not suit me at all," he revealed before being asked if the Emirates Course was a better fit: "So much more," said Dyson. "Something about it that I really like, really like. I like the place, I like it as a whole. I like everything about it. So you're always good in spirits when you come and play here."

Let's not forget that Dyson is a six-time Tour winner with two of those coming in the second half of last season.

Rather like Ian Poulter, he seems to get the best out of himself and his upbeat personality makes him a good man to have on your side when he gets a sniff of victory.

The 40/1 is a good price - especially to six places - so he'll go in as the headline tip.

Finally, I'll have a play on the round one leader market.

Jean-Baptiste Gonnet looks too short in the outright betting given that he's yet to win in just under 200 starts on Tour (how can he be the same odds as Dyson for example?)

But the Frenchman does know how to start fast.

In this event 12 months ago he opened with a 68 to lie in the top four after day one while he was third after the first round in Abu Dhabi two starts ago and also third after the opening day in the Alfred Dunhill Championship in South Africa a couple of months ago.

His average day one score is 68.66 in his last six starts so it would be no surprise to see him right up there and hopefully leading by the close of play on Thursday.

The clincher is that he has a nice, early tee-time so he's got the chance to post his score before the winds pick up and the greens get too much foot traffic.

TIPS

2pts e.w. Thomas Bjorn at 20/1 (Bodog 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6). Former winner here and bar one poor round has played some fine golf on this year's Desert Swing.

1pt e.w. Thorbjorn Olesen at 80/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Hugely rated, three-time runner-up last season and was top 10 in Abu Dhabi.

1.5pts e.w. Simon Dyson at 40/1 (Bodog 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6). Big fan of this event, knows how to win and desperate to get on the Ryder Cup team.

1pt e.w. Jean-Baptiste Gonnet to be first round leader at 40/1 (totesport, Betfred, 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Better at making fast starts than winning so looks best way to cash in on his hot form. T4 after R1 here last year.

Preview posted at 1200 GMT on 08/02/2012

Dave Tindall