Barclays betting preview

By Dave Tindall Last updated: 24th August 2010

The FedEx Cup play-offs may be overhyped but the final jackpot is certainly a lure and some of Europe's elite - Paul Casey, Luke Donald, Justin Rose and Padraig Harrington - are risking Ryder Cup places by staying Stateside.

For just the second time in its history, Ridgewood Country Club in New Jersey is playing host and that means a lack of course form for punters who only have the 2008 running to draw on.

So what do we know about the par 71?

Well, for starters it was designed by the great AW Tillinghurst and that's good news for Phil Mickelson who looks set to take over as world number one this week.

Lefty has a reputation for excelling on Tillinghurst tracks and he's very aware of the fact.

Speaking about Ridgewood at the Barclays (one of his main sponsors) media day, Mickelson said: "It's a golf course that I've come to love even though I've only played it a few times for the reason that I'm a big fan of Tillinghast.

"I think his golf courses are some of the best ever. I've been able to win at Baltusrol (2005 USPGA). I came close at Wingfoot (runner-up after a double bogey at 18) with one of his designs. His golf courses are something that I've really come to love and appreciate and try to emulate in some of his architecture style.

"Although I've only played one event here, I'm looking forward to getting back here and hopefully playing well because I feel like I played well on his golf courses."

You can add to that Bethpage Black (another Tillinghurst) where he finished runner-up to Tiger Woods in the 2002 US Open.

Steve Stricker sees another likeness - Medinah.

"You know, this reminds me of home to tell you the truth. Even though we are out east, this looks like a course that could be very easily in the Midwest somewhere. It reminds me of Medinah a lot.

"The grasses are the same. We putt on poa annua greens a lot where I'm from; it's bentgrass fairways, bluegrass rough and everything reminds me of home."

So is Medinah a similar test? Well, it's worth noting that Sergio Garcia lost in a play-off here at Ridgewood two years ago while he famously finished runner-up to Tiger at Medinah in 1999 and also took third place there in the 2006 USPGA.

In the three years of the play-offs, Stricker has two wins, a second and a third while Mickelson has two wins and a third.

Stricker also has two wins to Mickelson's one in 2010 so I'm going to lean towards the man from Wisconsin, who took victory at the John Deere just four starts ago.

It's fair to say that Stricker felt the pressure of playing in front of his home crowd at Whistling Straits on his last start but three rounds of par and a Saturday 68 still left him tied 18th.

Perhaps the added nerves affected him most on the greens as it was here that he was unusually mediocre. As he said later: "It was disappointing that I didn't putt the way I normally putt. Because I could have really been right in there the way I hit the ball."

Stricker, the winner of this event in 2007 when it was played at Westchester, took Ridgewood by storm over the first 36 holes two years ago when opening 68-64 but went backwards on the weekend.

He has lots of good form on Tillinghurst layouts and at Medinah too so even though the price looks a touch cramped the 20/1 could look a great investment come Sunday evening.

Now for my second pick...

It certainly sounds logical to suggest that a player posting a good finish one week is likely to keep his hot form going the next.

But we need to get player specific rather than just regard it as assumption that holds true across the board.

Take KJ Choi for example. He's never managed back-to-back top fives since joining the PGA Tour in 2000.

David Toms, though, does have a history of following one top five with another.

Checking back through the records we see a 3rd-5th in successive weeks in 2007, a 2nd-3rd in 2006, a 1st-5th-5th and a 3rd-2nd in 2005 and plenty more before that.

So having finally posted his first top five of 2010 - a second place at Sedgefield last week - it would come as no surprise to see him rack up another seven days later.

Asked if there had been a particular part of his game holding him back this year - remember he's a 12-time winner on the PGA Tour so his poor play was hard to fathom - Toms gave this revelation at Sedgefield:

"I think the mental part, to be quite honest with you. I wasn't able to put four rounds together. Seemed like I had a good round every week or had a lot of good holes during a round and I would give it back.

"Even last week in the PGA (at Whistling Straits) I was in great position going to Sunday (but he followed his Saturday 67 with a closing 75).

Reflecting on his final day slump, Toms said :"That's the way every week seemed to go. It was starting to wear on me. (But this week at the Wyndham) I stayed focused and patient and, you know, finally there I was at the end with a chance to win."

Toms is 6th in Driving Accuracy this year and 37th in Putting so that's a good combination and don't worry too much about his lack of length as his PGA win in 2001 came at Atlanta Athletic Club - one of the longest courses used for a major at that time.

Tenth at Baltusrol in 2005, Toms missed the cut here in 2008 but we can forgive him that as he was only 41st at the Wyndham the week before.

This time he goes to Ridgewood full of confidence and he's worth an each-way bet at 80s.

Jeff Overton has played his way onto the US Ryder Cup team without winning an event and, in some eyes, that highlights how medicore the American line-up is.

But, make no mistake, Overton is a fine player and there could be an element of him desperately trying to prove his worth by winning one of the play-off events.

Although the magic '1' hasn't come his way yet, he's been mighty close and it was just freakish that Stuart Appleby shot a 59 to deny him at The Greenbrier Classic (Overton closed with a 67).

The 27-year-old has posted five top three finishes this year which represents an excellent season in such elite company. It's put him fourth on The Money List with over $3m while his strong stats include an 8th place on the All Around ranking.

Many of those top threes have come on tree-lined traditional layouts, similar to the challenge here, while he played at Ridgewood in 2008 and, although only 38th, shot middle rounds of 67-68.

In short, Overton has had loads of big weeks this season while there are plenty of players at shorter odds who have had just one or are priced on reputation.

It means the 70/1 for Overton is real value and makes him the headline pick.

Finally, I'm going for a player who can boast five top 12s in his last seven starts and they include a tied seventh at St Andrews and a top five in the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational.

The man in question is Sean O'Hair who said at Firestone: "I've been playing some solid golf for a while now. I know my game is there, and I know I'm ready to win."

A missed cut at Whistling Straits last time out was disappointing but I'd rather focus on those earlier results plus the way he really came alive in last year's play-offs.

O'Hair was in nothing like the form he's showing now but finished 8-4-3 in the final three play-off events and hopefully the memories will come back.

He also knows that a win here could give his chances of a Ryder Cup wildcard a big boost.

O'Hair smashed Ernie Els 6&4 in the singles in the 2009 Presidents Cup so would love to win a first Ryder Cup cap at Celtic Manor.

The early 66s has gone but the 55/1 about him winning this week should still get your attention.

Tips:

2pts e.w. Steve Stricker at 20/1 (Coral 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Great record in the play-offs, course suits and plenty of good recent form.

1pt e.w. David Toms at 80/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Last week's runner-up has a history of following one top five with another.

1pt e.w. Jeff Overton at 70/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Five top threes this season so price looks big. Does well on traditional courses.

1pt e.w. Sean O'Hair at 55/1 (Sky Bet 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Excelled in the play-offs last year and plenty of good form before USPGA MC.