Open betting preview

By Dave Tindall Last updated: 15th July 2010

St Andrews - the 'home of golf' - has a record for identifying winners of the highest quality.

Just look back at the last seven winners - Tiger Woods, Tiger Woods, John Daly, Nick Faldo, Seve Ballesteros, Jack Nicklaus, Jack Nicklaus - to realise that. And, if Daly causes debate, remember that 'Wild Thing' was already a major winner before his memorable play-off win in 1995.

So the front of the market is a fair and obvious way to start our search.

It's hard to believe that Tiger Woods would be quoted at 7/1 to win a third St Andrews Open given his triumphs by eight shots in 2000 and five in 2005.

But, these days, Woods is a diminished figure. Since his double life was revealed in spectacular fashion, Woods has been in turmoil on and off the course. And although he's been able to raise himself to challenge in the majors (he finished fourth at both Augusta and Pebble Beach) no longer has he been able to make these tournaments bend to his will.

It's as if the old Tiger has been able to resurface on the first three days before the current, flawed one - now estranged from his wife and swing coach - has been exposed in the final round when the real test of mental strength has been required. It's this that Tiger, for now anyway, appears to have lost.

In short, expect him to contend this week but fall short of a third St Andrews win.

Rory McIlroy looks a woefully short price for a player who basically has played just two good rounds this year - even though he does love St Andrews and those 36 holes which took him to victory at Quail Hollow were spectacular.

I did flirt with backing Phil Mickelson - especially when his price hit 20/1.

But my preference at the top end of the market has to be Ernie Els.

Phil may have Augusta and could take Ernie's scalp on numerous other US courses. But, at The Open, there's only one winner.

And, if you're in any doubt, consider this head-to-head stat. When it comes to who's done best in Phil's 15 starts in The Open, the result reads: Els 15, Mickelson 0!

Even when Lefty finished third at Troon in 2004, Els went one better by reaching a two-man play-off so it simply has to be the South African.

As well as getting the better of Mickelson in 15 straight Open starts, Els is also vastly more experienced at the Old Course having played it numerous times on the European Tour.

So, while backing Els to win a match bet against Lefty looks a good move, I think we can expect much more than that from the Big Easy. In short, a second Open title to add to the one he won at Muirfield in 2002.

It's widely known that Els has a great Open record but when you list his finishing positions for the last 10 years you really get the sense of how fantastic it is - 8-7-4-3-34-2-18-1-3-2.

With Paddy Power paying to seven places this week, it's pretty obvious from the numbers above that Els is a cracking each-way bet at 20/1 and we can weight our stakes so that if Ernie finishes in the places it will guarantee us a profit.

To be honest, Els missing the cut at Loch Lomond (by a shot) was a blessing in disguise as that event really is no sort of preparation for an Open Championship (year after year people who do well there flop at The Open so it makes you wonder why so many use it as a warm-up).

Instead, as well as his awesome Open record, Els makes huge appeal due to his two wins on the US Tour this season and his third place in the US Open at Pebble Beach.

When Woods won at Pebble and St Andrews in 2000, Els finished runner-up to him both times so there's every reason to believe that, again, the South African can follow a stellar major performance on one famous links with another on the most famous of all.

Add in his ability to play well in the forecast poor weather - another reason to steer clear of Mickelson - and everything points to Ernie.

British golf is going through a boom period right now after Graeme McDowell's US Open triumph and US Tour wins for McIlroy, Justin Rose (two in his last three starts), Lee Westwood and Ian Poulter.

But I have a sneaking feeling for Luke Donald at 45/1.

Most golf fans don't think of Donald as an "Open type" but he appeared to turn the corner last year at Turnberry.

Donald, who started his Open career with five missed cuts before modest finishes of T52-T35-T63 between 2006 and 2008, changed his build-up ahead of last year's Open at Turnbery. And it worked - he finished tied fifth.

The Englishman is sticking to that gameplan this year, as he explained in his official online diary.

"I've put a lot of planning into this year's Open Championship and I'm hoping that is all going to pay off at St Andrews," he revealed.

"After playing in JP McManus's tournament (he finished runner-up to Darren Clarke who franked that form with a second place at Loch Lomond), I'm going up to Ballybunion, Lahinch, Waterville and Old Head - all great courses and all great for preparation for St Andrews. I think it's vital to have links practice. I've got a few friends coming up so we'll have a good time as well.

"I did something similar last year in Scotland and had a good Open Championship. So thought I'd try it again.

"As far as St Andrews is concerned, well my form is very good at the moment, so I'll be very optimistic of having another good Open.

"I've played the Old Course a few times and I feel very comfortable around it. It's a course you have to play several times to know where you are going and what you are doing. I've had some very good rounds there, so hopefully I can feed off that and have a good week."

Those "very good rounds" have helped him finish third and seventh in two of his three appearances at the Dunhill Links Championship (2 rounds at St Andrews, 1 each at Carnoustie and Kingsbarns).

Donald has played four tournaments on European soil in 2010 and has a win, a second, a third and an 11th.

One of the real form horses in the field, he makes real appeal at 45/1.

Even though no-one can come up with a great theory on why Americans do so well on links courses so alien to them, the simple fact is they do.

And yet, they're often priced as if they're going to be also-rans.

So let's wave the Stars and Stripes for our remaining picks.

First up is Ryan Moore - a player I've had some good each-way success on this year.

The former US Amateur champion was a runner-up to Justin Rose on his last start in the AT&T National while he was tied fifth at Memorial a few starts earlier.

One of the reasons for putting this preview out on Wednesday was to get a little info on how he had taken to St Andrews during practice.

Well, the news is good.

A US journalist friend sent me this on Twitter: "walked two holes w/him and he looked fantastic. just hitting everything pure, course fits his eye, great attitude. he's playing well."

Moore is a fan of traditional golf courses (he has a great record on Donald Ross designs) so it's no surprise to hear him waxing lyrical about St Andrews.

Second in Total Driving, Moore hits it long and straight and he's high up on the putting stats too.

At 125/1 he could prove a great outsider.

At even bigger odds, Ricky Barnes could pull a surprise.

Like Moore and 1997 Open champion Justin Leonard, Barnes is a former US Amateur champ and after struggling to make an impact in his early years as a pro he's really started to hit his straps.

He made most headlines when finishing runner-up in last year's US Open at Bethpage Black and as it was foul weather that week he won't mind the poor forecast here at St Andrews.

Barnes may look like an 18 handicapper when he swings, but his results are top notch.

His six top 10s on the US Tour this season are the joint highest in that category and his current form figures read: 16-5-27-3-7.

An interesting stat is that seven of the last 10 Open winners had finished in the top 10 of the Masters that same year. Barnes was tied 10th so fits the profile (Moore and Els were 14th and 18th respectively so if we widen it top 20 they get in there too!) and was also a decent tied 27th at Pebble Beach so he plays the majors well.

His low ball flight will be a plus if the winds get up and he's well worth an each-way dabble at 150s with seven payout places.

Next American surprise package in my staking plan is Bubba Watson.

For me, Watson has something of the John Daly about him, in a playing golf sense that is. He wallops the ball an absolute mile and is hugely creative.

Those skills helped Daly win the 1995 Open here and maybe they can help Bubba shine too.

For a long time, he carried the "still to win on Tour" label but he made the big breakthrough in the Travelers Championship a couple of weeks ago when beating Scott Verplank and Corey Pavin in a play-off.

And with that off his chest, he could really take off.

The left-hander has already shown up prominently in one major when he finished tied fifth in the 2007 US Open when in with a big chance on the final day and, maybe like Angel Cabrera, majors will be his thing rather than regular Tour events.

If his lack of Open experience worries you (the same applies to Moore and Barnes), it might be worth recalling what Anthony Kim said when playing in his first Open.

The young American was totally baffled by the conditions when he arrived at Birkdale and said he could shoot 100.

While everyone rushed to buy his finishing position, Kim's raw talent saw him through and he ended up finishing tied seventh.

I'll end with a player who does have Open experience - in fact he's actually won one.

Ben Curtis was almost an unknown when he took victory at Royal St George's in 2003 (proving Americans can flourish on links with little or no experience) and since then he's proved it was no fluke by finishing eighth at Carnoustie in 2007 and seventh at Birkdale in 2008.

He also appears to be coming into form at the right time having finished tied 14th in the US Open at Pebble and tied 13th in the Travelers Championship on his last two starts.

And with wind and rain forecast this week, Curtis is a proven performer in adverse conditions and that should give him a definite edge.

He's 125/1 at Paddy Power and we'll back all our players with the Irish firm given those seven payout places. Some of the tips are bigger prices elsewhere but I'd rather have the extra place - especially as many of the tips are big prices.

So there we have it, a South African, an Englishman and four big-priced Americans.

Sit back and enjoy!

Tips:

3pts e.w. Ernie Els at 20/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 Paddy Power). Amazing Open record and a former runner-up here. Third in recent US Open.

1.5pts e.w. Luke Donald at 45/1(1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7 Paddy Power). Sticking with gameplan that helped him finish T5 last year. In great form.

0.75pt e.w. Ryan Moore at 125/1(1/4 1,2,3,4,5 Paddy Power). Another in great form and does well on traditional courses. Loves St Andrews.

0.75pt e.w. Bubba Watson at 150/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5 Paddy Power). Hits it a mile, hugely creative in windy conditions. Similar to John Daly in 1995.

0.75pt e.w. Ricky Barnes at 150/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5 Paddy Power). Six top tens in the US this year, 10th at Augusta and low ball flight a plus.

0.75pts e.w. Ben Curtis at 125/1 (1/4 1,2,3,4,5 Paddy Power). Former Open winner, two other top 10s and coming into form. Won't mind bad weather.