Australian Open betting preview

By Matt Cooper Last updated: 2nd December 2009

The season might be very short Down Under, but the golfers and golf fans of Australia cannot complain about the courses used in the last few weeks.

The Australian Masters was a superb occasion with Tiger Woods enjoying himself amongst the huge galleries which packed the fine Kingston Heath layout.

That was a Dr Alister Mackenzie course and this week's Australian Open moves to Sydney, but retains the services of one of golf's greatest designers.

The links-style New South Wales course is right on the ocean and the location inspired Mackenzie to write: "This is a sand-duned peninsula which overlooks Botany Bay and presents, I think, more spectacular views than any other place I know."

With grand ocean views in every direction, many changes in elevation and lots of wind, my first thought was "Kapalua" and my second thought was "Geoff Ogilvy romped it there in January".

Ogilvy is the favourite for this event, but that win in Hawaii was something of a curiosity because he acknowledges that he doesn't like playing in wind - in fact it is something of a bug bear for him because he loves links golf but feels his high ball flight is ill-suited to it.

That's enough to put me off - and I'll continue to steer clear of Adam Scott too, who is yet to convince on home shores.

If the possibility of high wind puts me off the chances of two players, however, it makes me very positive about two others because if being able to play golf by the ocean is going to mean anything this week then I have to factor in the chances of Nathan Green and Tim Wilkinson.

New South Welshman Green won his first PGA event earlier this year in the RBS Canadian Open having hinted at being a likely PGA winner for a few years.

Interestingly many of his near misses came with the sea in sight and the wind whistling - he lost a play-off to Tiger at Torrey Pines (he also has an 11th there) and has made the top five at Waialae.

He also won his first European Tour event at Gulf Harbour in New Zealand (an ocean course similar to NSW), has been second at Royal Adelaide (another Mackenzie layout) and fifth at Royal Sydney (a couple of long drives from this week's venue).

His form in the last month has been a little wild - one minute shooting 65 and 64, next minute adding 79 and 80 - but I like backing players in favoured environments and NSW should suit Green so take the 50/1.

New Zealander Wilkinson has also thrived in blustery ocean conditions.

On his 2008 debut on the PGA Tour he led the Sony Open at Waialae, then added a sixth at the Puerto Rico Open and has since added another sixth at Harbour Town.

His 2009 season was interrupted by injury but since coming back from a six month break he has twice made the top twenty and was even in contention for a short period at Kingston Heath so 66/1 looks a nice price.

Somewhat to my surprise I'm quite keen on Nick O'Hern this week.

The Western Australian beanpole is best known as someone who has struggled to win on the main tours, but, like many of his compatriots, O'Hern has often been a different player on home soil - indeed, in the last ten years of competing on the ANZ Tour he makes the top five in 30% of his starts.

He's in great form currently (13th and fourth in his last two starts on the PGA Tour), he's got great course form (second here in the 2003 ANZ Championship) and he likes Mackenzie courses and playing by the sea.

Add in that strong record on home soil and I'm persuaded to add him to the staking plan at 22/1.

Finally I'll add an outsider in the shape of 23-year-old Queenslander Andrew Dodt who has made a quietly impressive start to his professional career.

He is coming to the end of his second season on the Asian Tour and, having made six top tens in 2008 to finish 43rd on the rankings, this year he has improved to currently lie 15th in the money list.

He played in the high quality Singapore Open at the start of November and finished ninth.

That's decent form and the other positive is that Dodt knows all about the course because he won the 2007 Australian Amateur on it.

At Singapore he said that his game "is ready to move to the next stage" and taking on the best of his countrymen on a course he likes gives him a great opportunity to make that step.

Take the 75/1.

Tips:

1pt e.w. Nathan Green at 50/1 (bet365, William Hill, Boylesports, 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Local man has proved he can cope with windy conditions.

1pt e.w. Tim Wilkinson at 66/1 (Ladbrokes 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). New Zealander is another who thrives when it blows.

1.5pt e.w. Nick O'Hern at 22/1 (bet365, Boylesports, Chandler, Stan James 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). The tall guy has found some form and is ultra consistent in Australia.

1pt e.w. Andrew Dodt at 75/1 (Paddy Power, William Hill 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Promising youngster won the Australian Amateur on the course.