Qatar Betting Preview

By Dave Tindall Last updated: 1st February 2012

Back in 2006, American golfer Chris DiMarco appeared as if he might be a fish out of water when he turned up to contest the Abu Dhabi Golf Championship.

But the then world number 11 took the event by storm, shot -20 and won the event by a stroke at rewarding odds of 25/1.

At the time I remember kicking myself a bit as DiMarco had actually shown a liking for desert golf by winning the Phoenix Open in Scottsdale a few years earlier.

So, six year later, I'm not going to miss out if history repeats itself.

Like DiMarco, Hunter Mahan is a US raider ranked in the world's top 20. And, like DiMarco, he's a former winner in Scottsdale. Add in the fact that he's 22/1 and the similarities are striking.

Mahan will arrive in Qatar on the back of a hugely heartening seasonal debut at Torrey Pines where he finished in a tie for sixth.

"I feel good. I'm excited the way I'm hitting it," he said at halfway and his final stats of 12th in Greens In Regulation and 7th in Putting Average showed that all parts of his game were in good working order.

After a winless 2011, I think Mahan is due a huge 2012 and a win in Qatar would provide the springboard.

It's a course he should like given his long, straight driving and with doubts over some of the market leaders - Kaymer's strange flop in Abu Dhabi, Westwood's injury concerns - I think any odds over 20s are decent ones.

Paul Lawrie's last two starts in the Middle East have produced strong title challenges so I'm not quite sure why he's a 50/1 shot here - especially as he is a former winner of this event.

Lawrie's victory in Qatar came back in 1999, the same year he won The Open at Carnoustie, but more recently he's managed top 20s in 2007 and 2011.

But it's his current play which really takes the eye.

The Scotsman's last three starts have brought a runner-up finish in the Dubai World Championship at the end of 2010 and, this year, a 10th in the Joburg Open and an eighth in Abu Dhabi last week.

Lawrie says he's kept his game ticking over in the holiday period by playing lots of golf with his two teenage boys (maybe stars of the future?) and he feels that's helped him make a fast start to 2012.

The price comes down to him being an unfashionable pick amongst most punters but anyone who's watched him in recent events will know that he's playing some of the best golf of his career.

Lawrie ended a nine-year win drought by winning in Andalucia last year while seeing fellow 40-something Thomas Bjorn win three times last year (including this event) must have given him the feeling that experience still counts for plenty.

I also have two outsiders lined up this week.

First up is the exciting young Dane, Thorbjorn Olesen.

The 22-year-old, who graduated from the Challenge Tour in 2010, finished runner-up three times last season (Alfred Dunhill Championship, Italian Open, French Open).

And yet many casual golf observers were still wondering who he was when Olesen outgunned the likes of Woods, McIlroy, Donald and Westwood to take the halfway lead in last week's Abu Dhabi Championship.

Although he got overtaken on the weekend, Olesen still shot under par on both Saturday and Sunday and that took him to an eighth place finish.

To some in the know, his performance wasn't unexpected as Olesen had actually arrived in Dubai early in the year to try and get his game sharp for the Desert Swing.

"I had my coach down, so we got some very good practice done there," he revealed.

After his top 10 in Abu Dhabi, Olesen took part in a special pro-am at Yas Links - the Emirates Airline Invitational - on Monday.

Fifty European Tour stars teed it up, including the likes of Sergio Garcia, Graeme McDowell and Retief Goosen and Olesen continued his impressive form by shooting a 65 to finish tied second in the individual event while he ended up winning the team prize with amateur partner Rob Hersov.

Now, after making the short hop to Qatar (only 40 minutes to Doha on a plane), Olesen will be keen to impress again on the big stage.

I'm surprised that some firms still have such high odds on him to win here. Like others who have succeeded at Doha, he's a big hitter who putts well and should he really be over three times the price of, say, George Coetzee when both could be bracketed as big talents still seeking a first win (Olesen has actually gone much closer)?

My other outsider is England's Richard Finch.

The Yorkshireman has played some good golf of late but just hasn't been able to finish things off.

He was halfway leader and in second with a round to go at the Joburg Open before slipping to 24th after a bad final day.

And last week in Abu Dhabi he was again up with the pace after rounds of 68 and 71 put him fourth at halfway before he fell back to 30th after a closing 74.

However, Finch feels he's hitting it well and said in Abu Dhabi: "I had those couple of weeks in South Africa, I suppose I come in here a little bit more match-fit, shall we say, rather than a few of the guys."

He showed more of that extra sharpness by finishing joint runner-up alongside Olesen in Monday's Emirates Airline Invitational and that round of 65 will give him some good feelings heading into an event where he's done well before.

Finch is a regular here, has never missed a cut in five starts and his finishes include a fourth in 2006 and a ninth last year.

The windy forecast will help (as it will with Lawrie) so get on Finchy at 150s.

TIPS

2pts e.w. Hunter Mahan at 22/1 (Sky Bet 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Won in the desert at Scottsdale in 2010 and T6 on seasonal debut last week.

1pt e.w. Paul Lawrie at 50/1 (totesport, BetFred 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Former winner of this event has been in great form of late and looks overpriced.

1pt e.w. Thorbjorn Olesen at 80/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). A three-time runner-up last season and T8 last week. Can thrive again here.

1pt e.w. Richard Finch at 150/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5). Shown plenty of promising signs of late, good in the wind and has decent record here.

Preview posted at 1240 GMT on 01/02/2012

Dave Tindall