Solving the PGA puzzle

By Harry Emanuel Last updated: 11th August 2010

This week the last major championship of the 2010 season gets underway at Whistling Straits on the shores of Lake Michigan.

Let's have a look at what's the players can expect this week.

At just over 7,500 yards Whistling Straits is the second longest course in major history. Length off the tee is always an advantage but it is not a prerequisite to winning. The fairways are generous in width but with water, thick rough and 1000 bunkers accuracy will be just as important.

In 2004 it was the longest course in major history but short, accurate players like Leonard, DiMarco and Riley filled three of top five places.

It was designed by Pete Dye and one of the features of his design is placement off the tee. Players need to be in the correct part of the fairway to have any chance of attacking the pin. Good ball striking will be rewarded and players will need to shape the ball both ways off the tee.

A number of holes run along the side of Lake Michigan giving the course a 'links feel' and some outstanding vistas but it is still very much an American style course where players will need to hit the ball high and land it softly to get close to the hole. They won't be able to run the ball into the greens and up to the hole.

Players will obviously need to have a good touch on and around the large undulating greens and good lag putters will fare well.

The PGA Championship has always been a tournament where players need to do everything well but no key skill stands out.

With that in mind and only the form from 2004 PGA Championship at Whistling Straits to go on it may not seem like a nightmare for punters but you would be wrong.

There are quite a few stats in the punters favour although Mark Twain would remind us, 'There are lies, damned lies and statistics.' Had he been a gambler I'm sure he would have said, 'Statistics allow you to lose money with confidence.' Here are some.

Nine of the last ten PGA Champions had already won on the PGA Tour that year. Knowing how to deal successfully with the pressure of leading a tournament is vital at a Major.

Don't underestimate the importance of winning. In fact 6 of the last 10 champions secured a victory in one of their two previous tournaments and 5 out of 10 where multiple winners on Tour that year.

You rarely get more than a handful of multiple winners each year so it's quite a clue - so far this year there are only five (Steve Stricker, Hunter Mahan, Jim Furyk, Ernie Els and Justin Rose).

9/10 winners had at least one top 10 in their previous three tournaments. Players need to be in form for a major. It is not a place you can hope to find your form.

At the 2007 US Senior Open at Whistling Straits three of top four fitted the 'winner in form' criteria including the winner Brad Bryant.

That leaves a short list of Ryan Palmer, Steve Stricker, Jim Furyk, Rory McIlroy, Tim Clark, Adam Scott, Louis Oosthuizen, Carl Pettersson, Stuart Appleby, Bill Lunde and Hunter Mahan.

8/10 made the cut at the previous year's PGA Championship. Positive association with the event is obviously very important for a player's confidence and they've gained valuable experience of dealing with the unique pressure of a major tournament.

That leaves Furyk, McIlroy, Clark, and Mahan.

Pete Dye has designed three other courses used regularly on the PGA Tour - TPC Louisiana, Hilton Head and TCP Sawgrass.

Half of the top 10 finishers at Whistling Straits in 2004 have won The Players at Sawgrass and the 2004 Players Champion Adam Scott was 9th that year. The winner Vijay Singh was 13th at the Players in the same year. Second placed Justin Leonard had previously won the Players and at Hilton Head. A liking for Pete Dye's style of design could be a key factor.

Pretty simple really - all we need is a recent winner, in good form, with a positive association of the PGA Championship and a liking for Pete Dye designed courses. In fact we have three.

Furyk (a former major winner) has been 8th and 6th in his last two starts, is a two time winner on tour this year including a win at the Pete Dye designed Hilton Head and rates a decent bet at 40/1.

Mahan is a two time winner this year. He was 17th at The Players earlier in the year and full of confidence after beating the top 50 players in the world last week and 40/1 is a fair price.

Last but not least Clark, winner of The Players earlier in the year, has shown some decent recent form (12-7-mc-4-58) and should better his 16th place in the event last year. 90/1 to win or 7/1 for a top ten place is the best bet.

Having said to the Wise One on the Monday of the Open - how about a long hitter like Louis Oosthuizen winning and then never backing him I'm going to get the sprinklers out as Glenfiddich would say and back a few others at big prices and in the specialty markets.

Ben Crane - won on a long course at Torrey Pines earlier in year. He has developed a very good record at The Players (6-5-4) in last few years. He likes the area winning in Wisconsin at the 2005 US Bank Championship and was 9th at Whistling Straits in 2004. He ranks 2nd in all round stats and he is one of the world's best putters. Price 125/1

Stuart Appleby - he has been coming back to form for a while and shot a final round 59 to win two weeks ago. Recent winners have very good record in event. He has played two Pete Dye courses this year finishing 8th and 6th and was 17th at Whistling Straits in 2004. Price 125/1

Rory Sabbatini - the forgotten South African who should be spurred on by Oosthuizen's Open victory is coming into form at right time with two top 10s in last three starts. He went close to winning on Pete Dye's TPC Louisiana in 2009. Price 200/1 or 6/1 Top 20.

Boo Weekley - excellent Hilton Head record (two time winner) with some form in recent weeks (21-9-46). He is one of best players tee to green and ranks 14th for total driving and 14th for greens in reg. He could go close if having a good week on the greens. Price 250/1 or 6/1 Top 20.

Carl Pettersson - is a recent winner and in decent form (6-m-1-51). He was a respectable 54th at Whistling Straits in 2004 and plays well on difficult courses that demand solid tee to green play. Price 150/1 or 19/1 Top Continental European.

Charlie Wi - coming into form (4-15-4-60) at the right time. He has form in area with a 2nd placed finish at the 2007 US Bank Championship and was 2nd at the Pete Dye designed TPC Louisiana in 2009. He is a solid putter. Price 250/1 or 50/1 Top Rest of World.

Jerry Kelly - winner on Pete Dye Designed TPC Louisiana in New Orleans last year. He was a fast finishing 3rd last week. He is a local boy with a great record in Wisconsin (2nd & 3rd last two events). He is an accurate player who can plot his way around. Price 300/1 or 200/1 Top USA with Coral!

They say, 'You can't back them all' but I say, 'You can back ten of them.' Good Luck.

Harry Emanuel