National debt

By Harry Emanuel Last updated: 30th June 2010

Having given careful consideration to all the facts I have come to a Sherlock Holmes style deduction. It is unsafe to travel large distances after drinking a handful of martinis and therefore it may prove prudent in the long term to move closer to the source.

My hand has been forced and a permanent relocation to within crawling distance of the Egerton House Hotel is underway.

Just don't tell my doctor whose meagre analytical skills on my last visit led him to utter the mortal words: "You'll be long dead from drinking and smoking before you have to worry about cholesterol."

He won't be invited to the house warming as he is unlikely to look kindly on the fact that the five martinis drained on a typical Monday afternoon equates to an entire bottle of gin or the consumption of a week's recommended units in one stumbling. As Jo Jo Smith said: "You're a long time looking at the lid."

The bedsit in question was on the market at over a grand a week but using the cunning negotiating trick of offering six months rent up front the deal was sealed for just over £900 (Landlords can't help but get excited at the prospect of a large cash sum in their back pocket).

As I always tell the Irish girl 'even a bargain costs money' and whilst this is not exactly a bargain I now find myself in the precarious position of having to front the six months cash.

The timing is not perfect after a poor U.S. Open where my ante-post bets, Donald and Weir, hit the top the leaderboard before crashing dismally, my only Top Ten bet Tim Clark finished 12th, Steve Marino failed to figure in the Top American Market and my man Noh got nudged out of top spot in the Asian Market by a stroke.

To add insult to injury I couldn't trip over a winner at Royal Ascot. A valuable less has been learnt - don't provoke the gods.

At first glance this week's AT&T National at Aronimink Golf Club in Pennsylvania may not seem the best place to start a financial recovery as there hasn't been a PGA Tour event at the venue since Gary Player's PGA Championship win back in 1962 and there hasn't been a tournament in the state since the U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club in 2007.

On closer inspection we have few things in our favour. Aronimink is a Donald Ross design and since 1996 there have been over 4000 rounds played on courses designed by the great man. It is significant because Ross has a very distinctive style of design (his most famous being Pinehurst No. 2).

They are generally tight tree-lined affairs with multiple doglegs and players are forced to shape the ball both ways off the tee. The 'upturned saucer' style greens are lightning fast and demand accurate iron play and a sure putting stroke.

Run off areas and bunkers around the greens also present a solid test of the players scrambling skills. The par threes play down hill while the longer holes play uphill and there are often unreachable par fives.

This week is no exception and you either like it or you don't.

There have also been over 6000 rounds played on the PGA/Nationwide Tours in the state of Pennsylvania since the Classic Laurel Valley in 2001.

Whilst sifting through boxes I've done the same with the stats and looking at them in conjunction with players' recent form (last three outings) we find some interesting results.

There are only two players in the field who have a top five in each category. Unsurprisingly one is Tiger Woods but with it will take a braver man than me to back him at 7/2 in his current state although there were some real signs of life in his third place at Pebble Beach and you write him off at your peril.

The other is 80/1 shot Tim Petrovic (the 100/1 has gone and unfortunately not as a result of my money).

Ryan Moore, Carl Pettersson and Brandt Snedeker are all in decent nick and former winners at the Ross designed Sedgefield and all play their best on tricky courses.

But there is only one man in the field who has won on two different Donald Ross courses. I'm not to put the 'Going for Gold' curse on him. One of those victories was a major, he ranks fourth in scoring average and seventh in the putting stats.

He was fourth at The Memorial and a respectable 22nd at U.S. Open. He is generally available at 100/1 and If there was ever a time to back Shaun Micheel it is now.

Looking at players' form in the state of Pennsylvania we find that Jim Furyk is a local boy who hosts a local charity event every year (since 1999) and Sean O'Hair is a member at Aronimink.

Bryce Molder, Rjuyi Imada and Brendon de Jonge all had two top five finishes on the Nationwide Tour but D.A Points was the Nationwide Tour's undisputed 'King of Pennsylvania' making eight cuts in nine events including a victory and fourth place at Glenmaura National.

He should have notched another victory in 2008 at Elmhurst but could only finish ninth despite going into the final round with a two shot lead. His current form read 7-m-23-37 and I wouldn't put you off at 150/1.

Robert Allenby's last win on the PGA Tour came in the Pennsylvania Classic in 2001, back-to-form Vijay Singh was a winner of 84 Lumber Classic and Jonathan Byrd, Rocco Mediate, Kevin Sutherland and Cameron Beckman all recorded two top five finishes in PGA Tour events.

It's Beckman who interests me at an unbelievable 250/1. Unlike the others he is already a winner on Tour this year at the Mayakoba Classic, his record in Pennsylvania reads 10-62-5-13-5-m and he showed a return to form when fifth three starts ago.

There is only one man in the field who has won on Ross design and in Pennsylvania. Both victories were on the Nationwide Tour and after a dismal year he put up his best performance last week with all four rounds at par and better.

He was very good tee to green but a bit shabby with the short game but he might out play his odds of 200/1. He'll need to if I'm going to pay the rent.

Harry Emanuel