Beware the watery grave

By Harry Emanuel Last updated: 3rd March 2010

After eight weeks playing in Hawaii, California and Arizona the PGA Tour moves to the East Coast.

For the fourth consecutive year the Champions Course at the PGA National is the host course for this week's Honda Classic. Each year it has ranked in the top 10 most difficult courses on Tour and Padraig Harrington described it as " big tough golf course - one of the toughest on Tour."

The winning score has never reached double digits under par at this Jack Nicklaus-redesigned track. It is a demanding test of ball striking from tee to green and players need to shape the ball both ways off the tee and use nearly every club in their bags.

With only two par fives and multiple doglegs it doesn't suit your average PGA Tour pro who hits the ball long and high which goes some way to explaining why 11 of the 21 players who have finished in a share of the top five places over the last three years were foreign-born players.

A feature of Florida golf courses are Bermuda greens which is a reason why only two Europeans featured amongst those 11 foreign players and why six of the other 10 places where filled with East coast natives.

Being such a tough course you would expect the best players to rise to the top. Why then have only four players with quotes of 30/1 or less finished in the top five with the majority relative outsiders priced up at 100/1 plus?

The answer is water.

Normally if players miss a green the ones with the best short game will likely save par and cement their place on the leader board.With water in play on 16 holes just a couple of loose shots can significantly derail any player's round.

Take the par three 17th for example. In 2009 it was the most difficult par three on tour, averaging 3.395 strokes and there were more double bogeys or worse (45) than birdies (27).

The 15th tells a similar story. It was the fourth most difficult par three on tour last year with an average of 3.322 and it too saw more doubles or worse (41) than birdies (29).

Water is a great leveller for professionals and amateurs alike.

Looking at the field this year you can make strong cases for the seven players in the betting quoted at 30/1 or less. Allenby is in great form and boasts three top five finishes in his three visits. World numbers 4, 6, 9 and 10 (Westwood, Casey, McIlroy and Harrington) are all class acts. Els won the tournament in 2008 and Villegas has three top 10s coming into the week and was second here in 2007.

But since the start of 2009 they have played in over 125 PGA tour events between them with only one victory (Casey at the Shell Houston Open) and that on its own is enough to convince me to look elsewhere.

With the Wise One feigning off sick earlier this week Matt Cooper has taken the same view unlike the Racing Post Tipsters who have plumped mainly for the favourites.

If our picks (I'll throw in 100/1 shot Charlie Wi to even things up) don't outperform the RP selections I'll give £100 to the British Heart Foundation.

Thinking of Charity my cousin has just started his quest to run 50 marathons in 50 days to raise money for Marie Curie Cancer Care and if you're feeling generous you can got to www.50in50.co.uk and make a donation.

I'll be tapping up Tommy Gretton to donate his share of the prize money after training his first winner (Cat Six) under rules at Catterick on Tuesday.

I don't blame you if you keep your hands in your pocket as it's only 36 days to The Masters.

I'm going to put away £20 a day from now till then so I'll have a nice fund of £720 to play with come April 8th as long as I don't end up giving it all away to charity.

I shall try to comfort myself with the fact I won't be losing as much cash as the players who hit their balls in the water at the PGA National over the weekend.

Harry Emanuel