Tour Champs betting preview

By Dave Tindall Last updated: 6th October 2009

I've always held the opinion that current form counts for most when trying to pick the winner of the Tour Championship.

And that belief has been crystalized in the last few years with the last two winners - Camilo Villegas and Tiger Woods - going into the event on the back of a victory while 2006 winner Adam Scott had lost out in a play-off on his penultimate start.

A second angle I'm looking to pursue is the fact that this week's course - East Lake - is another of those Rees Jones redesigns.

Cog Hill, host course to leg three of the four-tournament FedEx cup play-offs, had also been given the RJ treatment and Tiger's victory there hammered home an incredible stat pointed out by my colleague Harry 'The Hat' Emanuel.

Harry's computer had spat out a series of numbers - 1-2-4-2-1-1-1-6-1-1-1-1-6-1-2. What did they refer to? They were Tiger's form on layouts redesigned by Rees Jones from 2005 to the present day.

And, of course, you can now add another 1 to that, meaning he has 10 wins from his last 16 starts on RJ redesigns - a staggering percentage.

No wonder you can't get better than 11/10 about another Woods win and, on those numbers, he should be odds-on.

If someone told me they were putting the lot on Tiger this week I'd struggle to talk them out of it but I'm going to try and highlight the folly of backing him at such short odds by having some of the 8/5 about Scott Verplank scoring a top 10 finish.

Verplank has finished fifth, third and seventh on his last three starts at East Lake and in his last three starts in 2009 has a ninth and a second.

In fact, the more you look at his form the more the top 10 finish really appeals.

After a poor first half of the season, Verplank has racked up five top 10s in his last nine starts so, as for most of his career, he's playing solid rather than winning golf.

He was also sixth on another Rees Jones redesign in Atlanta - the Atlanta Athletic Club, host venue of the 2001 USPGA - so that 8/5 really does make appeal.

I'll weight the stakes so a Verplank top 10 will produce a profit on the week.

As for someone who can put pressure on Woods or at least finish best of the rest, I'm really keen on Sean O'Hair.

The American, five clear overnight, lost out to a fast-finishing Tiger at Bay Hill but showed no ill effects by finishing 10th at the US Masters and winning at Quail Hollow on his next two starts.

After the birth of his third child, O'Hair looked to have lost a bit of focus but after a pep talk from a fellow pro reminding him how good he is, the American has really come on strong in the play-offs.

He led going into the final round at TPC Boston before treading water in the final round and finishing tied eighth but then, by way of contrast, produced a fast finish to capture fourth place at Cog Hill (as mentioned, a Rees Jones redesign).

Click through the stats of previous Tour Championships and you'll see that the leading finishers are all ranked top or very near to the top of the Greens In Regulation stats for the week.

It means strong iron play is vital at East Lake so it's a big tick in the O'Hair box that he was ranked second for G.I.R. at Cog Hill last time out.

O'Hair has only made one previous visit to East Lake and finished 12th. But what makes that finish look even more encouraging is the fact that he proved he could go low. After getting his eye in and struggling with a pair of opening 73s, the Texan-born 27-year-old shot 64-66 on the weekend.

Add in a recent good finish (tied fourth in this year's season-opening Mercedes) in a limited field event and that top 10 at Augusta on his last visit to Atlanta and O'Hair has plenty going for him.

The big question, though, is can he beat Tiger?

I have a slightly romantic notion that O'Hair can gain revenge for his Bay Hill beating but the prudent play is to back him without Woods at 16s.

It's easy to get a bit freaked by Tiger's eight-shot win and presume that he's now in one of those periods where he demolishes his rivals all the time.

And that's probably why Paddy Power's offer of 11/2 that he'll win by 5 shots or more has been backed down to 9/2.

However, despite periods of play where he's been off the planet, in the current decade Woods has only twice followed up a five-shot-or-more win with another and there was a four-month gap involved in one of those examples.

Seven of Tiger's last nine wins have been by three-strokes or less so Sky Bet's 3/1 about Woods' winning margin being 0-3 shots would be a better play if you're going to get with the great man.

In theory all of the 30-man field can still win the FedEx Cup although for 30th-ranked John Senden he'd have to win the tournament and then hope Woods finished last!

Steve Stricker, Jim Furyk, Zach Johnson and Heath Slocum have it in their own hands but it's hard to say whether that gives them any extra motivation so there's no real angle there.

I'm struggling to find another outright pick so I'll end by playing the first round leader market and taking Retief Goosen at 22/1.

I was speaking to a top South African coach up at Turnberry this year and he told me that you could tell what round of a tournament it was simply by looking at Goosen's putting stroke.

He reckoned Goosen (a player he knows very well) starts off looking very assured on the greens on day one but as the tournament progresses he becomes less and less certain and ends up leaving his putts short (especially if in contention).

In other words, Goosen is a player likely to put good rounds on the board early and a quick look through his records this year shows that he's twice held the first round lead while he's sat third after day one in two of his last six starts.

At East Lake he gets out of the blocks quickly too.

The last time he played here (2006) he was the joint first round leader while 12 months earlier he was second after the opening skirmishes.

Goosen is a big fan of East Lake and there's a strong chance he'll show his hand early.

Tips:

2pts e.w. Sean O'Hair 'without Woods' at 16/1 (Ladbrokes 1/4 1,2,3,4). Coming into form at just the right time and strong G.I.R figures bode well.

4pts Scott Verplank to finish in the top 10 at 8/5 (Stan James). 5th, 3rd and 7th on his last three starts here and 5 top 10s in his last 9 starts.

1pt e.w. Retief Goosen to be first round leader at 22/1 (Betfred 1/4 1,2,3,4). 1st and 2nd after day one on his last two visits here and plenty of quick starts in 2009.