Stat'll be the winner

By Matt Cooper Last updated: 6th July 2011

Louis Oosthuizen's lead is a pretty strong indicator of success but Matt Cooper takes a look at which stats point to the winner.

How many shots behind the 54-hole leader was the eventual winner?

Seven of the last 14 Open Championship winners were in the lead going into the final round. A further four were within three shots of the lead. Another two within six shots of the lead. Only Paul Lawrie in 1999 overhauled a huge lead when coming back from 10 shots in arrears; aided and abetted by Jean Van de Velde's collapse.

What was the eventual winner's 54-hole position?

We already know what seven were in the lead but another five were in the top three (or tied) - in other words 12 of the last 14 Open Championship winners went into the final 18 holes in the top three. The two exceptions were Paul Lawrie (already discussed) and last year's champion Stewart Cink who began the final round in sixth.

How near the lead had the eventual winner been before the cut?

A curious stats is that 13 of the last 14 champions had been in the top six (or ties) at the end of round one or round two. Most of them settled near the top by the end of round two, but even those who didn't had actually been up there earlier in the week. Cink was fifth after round one before slipping back to a tie for ninth and David Duval in 2001 was also fifth on Thursday evening before dropping to 35th.

Conclusion of these stats?

The winner is most likely to come from a short-list of three - Oosthuizen, Casey and Kaymer; with Kaymer the outsider. Here's a closer look at those players.

Louis Oosthuizen

Half of the last 14 54-hole leaders won the event so that stat is good - as is his four shot margin over second placed Paul Casey. He may not have won as many events as he should have done - especially on the European Tour - but he is a winner this year and that victory, in the Open de Andalucia, came on a seaside course which was fast running, the Parador Malaga. Perhaps curiously he has a very poor record in the Dunhill Links Championship, with four missed cuts in six starts and a best finish of 40th. But that event is played in different conditions. The Open Championship itself isn't though - and he's previously missed the cut in all three of his Open starts. He is not entirely without form on the links though - he won the Irish Amateur at Royal Dublin in 2002.

Paul Casey

Like Oosthuizen Casey has not previously performed at his best in the Open Championship. Only at Royal Birkdale, when he was seventh, did he do himself justice. But part of the problem is that he has always hit a high ball flight which makes hitting through the seaside wind difficult so he and coach Pete Kostis have specifically worked on that. That stats support him in as much as he is in the top three but the lead he has to overcome is substantial enough to make it unusual if he does the job.

Martin Kaymer

The stats says that his position in the top three is good news, but the gap - seven shots - is too great. On the other hand big leads have been overcome and we have to bear in mind that the young German knows how to win. In 89 events at PGA, European and WGC tour level he has five victories. He also started just nine Challenge Tour events and collected another two wins. His record at the home of golf isn't bad either - 15th at the Dunhill Links Championship in 2007 and defeat in a play-off 12 months later.

One final stat

The last 11 Open winners have all been blessed with a hot putter. Indeed they all made the top 13 in either Putts per Green in Regulation or Putts per Round. Bearing this in mind Oostuizen is currently ranked second for Putts per Green in Regulation and Casey ninth, Kaymer is currently not holing enough putts but one sharp round would change that of course.

Matt Cooper