Matt's facts and stats

Last updated: 20th June 2010

Sunday:

I noted yesterday that all of the last 14 winners of the US Open were no more than two shots behind the leader after 36 holes (and all inside the top six). So what about the 54 hole position?

Well, 13 of the 14 winners were top four or better - the exception was Angel Cabrera in 2007 who dropped back to a tie for seventh.

10 of the 14 winners were first or second going into the final round.

In terms of shots made up, those who went backwards yesterday have some hope because four players went backwards on Saturday before bouncing back: Cabrera not only lost the lead, but dropped four shots back, Michael Campbell in 2005 went from two back to four back, Lee Janzen in 1998 went from two to five back and, less significantly, Ernie Els in 1997 went from one to two shots behind.

In yesterday's round three Dustin Johnson and Tiger Woods both went very low for a US Open venue, shooting rounds of 66.

The last US Open winner to shoot a 66 in round three was Ernie Els in 1994 - and the last player to go low all weekend was Larry Nelson in 1983 who went 65-67.

A quick review of the key competitors:

Dustin Johnson:

This is the third time Johnson has held a 54-hole lead. The first time he was declared winner of the 2009 AT&T Pro-am when the final round was cancelled and the second time, at the same event 12 months later, he shot a 2-over par 74 to win by two. Johnson does share something in common with Tiger Woods: he is the first player since Woods to win in each of his first three years out of college. He has played both the front and back nine in three-under this week. He has twice bogied the ninth hole, and has two birdies and one par on the par-five sixth and par-three 17th holes. He currently leads the field for Driving Distance and Greens in Regulation, and ranks fifth for Scrambling.

Graeme McDowell:

A five-time winner on the European Tour, his best finish on the PGA Tour was second place at the 2005 Arnold Palmer Invitational. He is seeking to become the first European winner of the US Open in 40 years. He has played the front nine in three-under all week but the back nine in level par (he swaps a lot of birdies with an equal number of bogies). He likes the first and sixth (two birdies on each), but is less keen on the third and 17th (two bogies). He has taken 11 fewer putts than Johnson (and ten fewer than Woods) but is hitting less greens in regulation.

Tiger Woods:

His third round five-under par 66 was the first time Woods had more than six sub-par scores in a US Open round (with eight birdies). He is tied for fourth in the list of all-time US Open victories - a win here would put him on four wins alongside Ben Hogan, Jack Nicklaus, Robert Tyre (Bobby) Jones Jr and Willie Anderson. He has 14 major championship wins but has never come from behind to win one of them. He has played the front nine in two-over and the back nine in three-under (including five-under in the third round alone). He has twice bogied the second and third holes and likes the 11th (two birdies).

Other stats:

The 54-hole leader has won 48 times in the US Open.

The largest final round comeback was seven shots by Arnold Palmer at Cherry Hills in 1960. Johnny Miller's great round of 63 in 1973 at Oakmont saw him comeback from six shots and three players have overhauled five shot deficits.

One final curiosity: of the 12 players in the top ten (and ties) seven have played at Loch Lomond in the Scottish Open and no fewer than five of them won there (McDowell, Els, Kaymer, Havret and Clark) and one of the remaining two (Mickelson) was beaten in a play-off by Havret. Perhaps the sight of boats and yachts bobbing around on the ocean reminds them of the similar scene on the loch! (Or even the final hole drive which are also very alike.)

Friday:

Okay, let's recap what I wrote yesterday about the compelling stats about the 36-hole stage of recent US Opens: every winner for the last 14 years was within two shots of the lead and in the top six (including ties) at halfway.

If that trend is to continue (which is not assured because, as the banks remind us, past performance is no guarantee of future returns) we have a short list of five potential winners. Here's how the currently line up:

Graeme McDowell (-3): Putting his socks off (only taken 54 putts so far as he maintains the hot streak that saw him collect eight birdies in his first 11 holes in his winning final round at the Celtic Manor Wales Open), has improved on every US Open start (80-48-30-18) and was eighth at Pebble in the AT&T Pro-am in 2005 (when he ranked first for All-round game). The big negative is that he is European and no player from that continent has won this event since Tony Jacklin in 1970 - not even during the continent's glory years of the 1980s.

Phil Mickelson (-1): Three-time winner of the AT&T Pro-am at Pebble Beach, five-time runner-up in the US Open and possesses arguably the world's most inventive scrambling skills which could become more and more essential as the small greens become harder (and therefore harder to hit). His negative is, paradoxically, that he is a five-time runner-up in an event he desperately wants to win which means he has more baggage than LAX.

Ryo Ishikawa (-1): Would seem to face a huge uphill struggle. He missed the cut in this year's AT&T Pro-am, he has never finished in top 30 in America, he is on debut in the event (only five debutants have won), he is only 18-years-old (he would become the youngest winner of the event) and has the huge pressure of his nation's expectations on his shoulders. On the other hand he did shoot 58 in The Crowns event in Japan last month, on a course (Nagoya) that are characterised by very small, hard greens.

Ernie Els (-1): Two-time US Open winner, two-time winner on the PGA Tour in 2010 and second in the 2000 US Open held here at Pebble Beach. The worry surrounds his putting and his desperation to win another major. If he hangs around the top of the leaderboard he will play on crustier greens with the late afternoon Poa Annua grass adding unwanted bumps and putting has been his Achilles Heel in recent years. He's also not looked the same major contender since losing out to Todd Hamilton in the 2004 Open.

Dustin Johnson (-1): Double winner on the course (in the last two AT&T Pro-ams), three-time PGA Tour winner in just 64 starts and hitting more greens in regulation than the other four contenders. This is the tenth time that a major has been held on a course that hosted a PGA Tour event earlier in the year; Johnson would be the fifth winner of the PGA event to double up in the major. The downside is that he remains a little impetuous and if he starts to miss those greens his short game can be a little clumsy.

Stats:

Looking at the key stats from the first 36 holes, a few things stand out:

All five are hitting at least 60% of the fairways but Dustin Johnson (71.43%) and Ernie Els (82.14%) are a little more accurate.

They are all also hitting over 60% of the greens in regulation but Johnson once again stands out, hitting 75% of them.

Sand saves are interesting - Mickelson has only found one bunker so far, Els has lived up to his reputation as one of the world's finest from sand with an impeccable 4 from 4 record whilst McDowell has comfrtoably found the most bunkers (7), getting up and down on just three occasions.

McDowell has made up for this with just 54 putts, Mickelson and Ishikawa have needed 57, Els 58 and Johnson 62.

The 36-hole leader has won, neatly, 36 times in the US Open - Angel Cabrera in 2007 was the last player to do so.

Friday:

Three players top the leaderboard after day one of this year's US Open: England's Paul Casey, America's Shaun Micheel and Zimbabwe's Brendon De Jonge all carding two-under rounds of 69.

It is the first time since 1999 that more than two men have led after 18 holes but is nowhere near the record of seven achieved at Southern Hills in 1977.

This is the 110th running of the US Open and only 19 first round leaders have gone on to lift the trophy so, however pleased they are with that start, the three players have got their work cut out to buck the trend.

Another stat suggests that De Jonge won't be lifting the trophy because only five players have won the US Open on their debut.

If any of the three continue to top the field by the end of today take these stats into account: eight players have led for three rounds and then not won, plus only 15 players have led (or tied for the lead) wire to wire.

Looking at more recent trends does not make any more encouraging news for the top three.

Since 1996 only three players who led, or were tied for the lead, went on to complete victory.

Curiously all three of those wins were wire-to-wire and came in consecutive years.

Two of the commanding victories were claimed, less surprisingly, by Tiger Woods - at Pebble Beach in 2000 and at Bethpage in 2002. Sandwiched in between was Retief Goosen's first win at Southern Hills in 2001.

In that time some interesting names have tried and failed to emulate Woods and Goosen including Colin Montgomerie twice (in 1997 and 2006), Rocco Mediate in 2005, Nick Dougherty in 2007 and two slightly forgotten men of the 2008 Open - Justin Hicks and Kevin Streelman.

If the men right at the top of the leaderboard have got the weight of history against them, don't think it means that getting off to a good start is not essential.

12 of the last 13 winners were in the top 20 (plus ties) after just 18 holes. If that trend is to continue you can discount anyone currently on +2 or worse.

But the trend that really leaps off the page is the one which takes into account the action we will watch today.

Traditionally Saturday is deemed "Moving Day" and whilst it is a nice idea, and works from the point of view of whipping up a story in the news, the facts don't really back it up: "Consolidation Day" would make more sense from the point of view of the players who go on to win.

But in terms of this event Friday might deserve the "Moving Day" title because the stats in recent years are revealing.

All 14 winners since (and including) 1996 were safely inside the top six (and ties) by the end of the second round.

Perhaps even more compelling is this fact: by the end of round two none of the last 14 winners was more than two shots behind the leader.

The notion of players moving today is given further credence when you note that only three of those 14 winners (Goosen in 2001, Geoff Ogilvy in 2006 and Angel Cabrera in 2007) didn't break 70.

A final note of consolation for Blaine Peffley from Lebanon, Pennsylvannia who currently props up the field after his opening round of 86.

It could have been worse. A lot worse because it came nowhere near breaking the tournament record for the worst card handed in.

That "honour" goes to JD Tucker who at the (appropriately named) Myopia Hunt Club in 1898 signed for a 157 in the first round. Not only is that comfortably the worst score ever handed in for the first round, it is the worst score ever recorded in any round.

Thursday:

Throughout this year's US Open I'm going to keep an eye on facts, figures and statistics. Having flicked through the media guide I thought I'd start with a little browse through the tournament's history, highlighting a few oddball moments, breakthroughs, firsts, lasts and other standout moments ...

1895 - on the nine-hole course at Newport GC on Rhode Island Horace Rawlins becomes the first champion when he defeats just 10 opponents with a 36-hole score of 173.

1898 - the event is extended to 72 holes and Fred Hunt claims victory at the remarkably named Myopia Hunt Club in Massachusetts.

1901 - witnesses the first of many play-offs which is won by Willie Anderson, whose 85 sees off Alex Smith's 86.

1906 - for the first time par is listed.

1907 - reflecting the Anglophile nature of the early years of golf in America the 1907 Open is held at Philadelphia Cricket Club.

1911 - John McDermott wins at the tender age of 19 years, 10 months and 14 days and remains the youngest winner to this day (he is also the last player to win with a round in the 80s).

1922 - Gene Sarazen wins in front of the first gallery asked to buy tickets.

1931 - with 72-holes unable to separate them, Billy Burke and George Von Elm contend a 36-hole play-off and tie that too with scores of 149 apiece so they set off for another 36-holes which Burke squeezes by the one shot, 148-149.

1939 - poor Ray Ainsley records the highest score on any US Open hole taking 19 strokes to complete the par-four 16th hole at Cherry Hills CC.

1948 - the great Ben Hogan wins for the first time, the first of four wins in six years.

1965 - for the first time the tournament is played over four days with 18 holes per day.

1970 - Tony Jacklin wins by seven shots (no European golfer has won in the subsequent 40 years).

1973 - 61-year-old Sam Snead becomes the oldest player to make the cut (he finished T29).

1977 - Hubert Green wins despite playing the final round under a death threat (a caller to the FBI claimed Green would be shot on the 15th green).

1980 - Green records eight consecutive 3s at Baltusrol GC - the longest streak of 3s in the event's history.

1990 - Hale Irwin becomes the oldest champion at the age of 45 years and 15 days.

2000 - Tiger Woods records his first US Open win with a record 15-shot margin.

2002 - the first event to utilise a two tee start.

2005 - the first year of International Qualifying.

2008 - Tiger Woods becomes the first player to win the US Open with a broken leg (actually that is unverified but it's a got a better than 50-50 chance of being correct!).